Also available in Microsoft Word 6.0 format, which is a lot easier to read
and looks nicer.
Download Now
(Use the "Back" button on your browser to return to this page.)
GENERAL OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION THE CAUSE OF THE TROUBLE POTENTIALS FOR DISASTERS PLAYING PROPHET THE CHRISTIAN'S RESPONSE TO Y2K WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT THE Y2K ISSUE QUICK SUMMARY THE CAUSE OF THE PROBLEM - COMPUTERS THE CAUSE OF THE PROBLEM - PEOPLE THE IMMEDIATE IMPACT OF Y2K CHEAP INSURANCE DIFFICULTIES IN PREDICTIONS SECONDARY EFFECTS OF Y2K WHAT MIGHT TURN A RAT INTO A TIGER BANKS WHAT MIGHT TURN A RAT OR A TIGER INTO A MONSTER THE MORAL CONDITION OF AMERICA SODOM AND GOMORRAH ASSESSMENTS OF PROBABILITIES PREPARING FOR TOUGHER TIMES MORE CHEAP INSURANCE LONG TERM PREPARATIONS - GENERAL CONCEPTS CONCLUSION IMPORTANT POINTS DOING SOMETHING GENERAL OTHER RESOURCES THE BASIC PHILOSOPHY OF PREPARATION METHODS RELOCATING TO THE SAFER LOCATIONS WATER SANITATION FOOD HEAT, LIGHT AND ELECTRICITY BATTERIES COOKING AND WATER HEATING SECURITY GOVERNMENT MEDICINE AND DENTISTRY TRANSPORTATION CLOTHING COMMUNICATIONS WORSHIP AND CHRISTIAN SERVICE PETS EDUCATION TIMEKEEPING DEALING WITH Y2K COMPUTER PROBLEMS SUGGESTIONS FOR PERSONAL COMPUTER USERS SUGGESTIONS FOR BUSINESSES INVESTMENTS OPPORTUNITIES SOME FINAL REMARKS APPENDIX THIS INFORMATION COULD SAVE YOUR LIFE - FOR ETERNITY
Send US$10.00 shareware fee to: (Please make check payable to Tom Sullivan. Thank you.)
Copies are available. Write to: ExFetus@ibm.net or Fax: 765-385-0304 and request one of the following formats to be sent by E-mail: Microsoft Word for Windows 6.0, Microsoft Word for Windows 2.0, Microsoft Works for Windows 3.0, Microsoft Works for Windows 2.0, WordPerfect for Windows 5.x, WordPerfect for Dos 5.0, Windows Write, Single MS- Dos text file or A series of 5 text files sent as mail (for Juno and other text only E-mail systems.).
For printed and bound copies, payment in advance is required. Send US$20.00 per copy to the address above. Add US$10.00 per copy for postage outside the US and Canada. Copies will be sent first class mail.
Now to Him who is able to do exceedingly abundantly above all that we ask or think, according to the power that works in us, to Him be glory in the church by Christ Jesus to all generations, forever and ever. Amen. (Eph 3:20-21)
What is the most important thing in your life? If your answer was not to, "to serve Jesus Christ," "Glorify God," or something similar, you have worse problems than Murphy's Law; this paper will do you little good in the long term. For that reason, you should carefully consider the information in the Appendix before going any further.
Even if you do not own a computer, the year 2000 computer bug will affect you. This is because our entire society is heavily dependent upon computers. If you have ever gotten a wrong bill and had trouble getting it fixed, you know that computers can mess up your life (at least a bit) when they don't work. A time is coming when larger and larger numbers of computers will fail at about the same time. Wrong bills may be the least of your problems.
This paper is roughly divided into three sections. The first section outlines the problem and hints at some solutions. The second part gives more details about many of the issues raised in the first section. The third section contains yet more details about selected topics which may not be of interest to all readers. By no means should you reject the ideas presented on the basis of the first (summary) section alone; there is not enough detail presented. By the time you finish, you will have some choices to make. Your choices will not be made easier by the paucity of hard information available. At the same time, to forget the whole issue without careful consideration is irresponsible. Just because an event will be painful if it happens does not make it impossible. This point, while (even insultingly) obvious, is the reason why so many people have chosen to ignore this entire issue. May God give you wisdom and discernment in your response to the facts given here.
Important: You are responsible for your own decisions. I have given the best advice I can with what I know. I am not liable for the consequences of your actions, even if you base your actions on what is in this paper. There are simply too many unknowns and the future is too unpredictable for this to be otherwise.
Even many personal computers will be affected. If you have a personal computer, see the remarks below on home and small business computers.
For many years, computers have stored dates much like we do, for example, for July 4, 1976, we would write 7/4/76. A computer might store it is 070476. The year 2000 presents a problem because 7/4/00 is actually July 4, 2000, not July 4, 1900. This change is obvious to humans of even low intelligence, but computers are incredibly stupid and are able to only follow excruciatingly exact instructions. Hence, unless the computer has been programmed to recognize "00" as the year 2000, it will fail. These bugs (defects) are often easy to fix, but there are literally billions of them in America's computers and they can be hard to find. Some even require hardware changes to fix. (Actually firmware changes, but to the customer, it still means replacing parts in most cases.) Because these y2k bugs will show up around January of 2000, very many computers will fail and many business and services will be shut down at about the same time. The length of time of the shutdowns will range from seconds to forever. Some effects will be felt even sooner as in expiration dates computed in advance. This problem goes by many names, including "y2k bug," "Millennium bug," "Century Date Problem," etc. We will generally use "y2k" in this paper.
Also, some real time controllers such as those in traffic lights and electric generating plants will fail. It is also probably prudent to skip the New Year's eve parties and stay home. Especially avoid flying due to known problems with the FAA's Air Traffic Control System. That way, you will not be caught away from home if there is a power failure or all the traffic lights go nuts. Remember however that some real time control problems may take a day or two to manifest themselves.
If a computer programmer carefully examines a simple computer program, he can predict what will happen when January 1, 2000 comes. With complex programs, even if the programmer spends much time testing the program, the best he can say that it probably works. Very large systems will take years to fix - and we have only months left before the inflexible deadline of January 1, 2000. It is for this reason that we cannot simply "just fix" the problem.
Because some large number of computers will cease working at about the same time, the businesses, governments and other organizations which depend upon them will simultaneously encounter problems ranging from higher expenses (hence lower or no profits) to a total shutdown of operations, even bankruptcy. In addition, because of the interconnectedness of our society, even organizations and individuals with working computers will be affected by the failures of other organizations. If you depend on the product or service that a particular shut down business provides, then you will have a problem.
That some organizations will be affected, some disastrously is unquestioned. The questions that remain unanswered and (perhaps due to the lack of hard data available) are a matter of heated debate are: How many and how severely will the affected organizations suffer? What effect will these failures have on society as a whole?
If the only organization shut down is the IRS, few people will lose any sleep. But if your local electric utility shuts down, you will be affected immediately and severely. If grocery stores have computers which cannot order supplies, the shelves will soon be bare of everything short of kosher ham and caffeine free Jolt.
If banks are among the casualties, commerce will come to a screeching halt. If there are bank runs, you can be sure that banks will be among the casualties. Dishonest fractional reserve banking guarantees this. Please do not underestimate this potential problem. Most money is nothing more than information on some bank's computer. If the banks stop, the economy stops.
In addition, if the government stops handing out welfare checks, or if people start going hungry and without power, there will be riots and civil unrest. If the civil disorders get bad enough, the potential consequences range all the way from what we saw in the LA riots to guerrilla warfare in our cities.
The y2k issue cannot be addressed without considering that God may use it as a means of judgement, either to bring us to our senses, or to destroy us. The fact that we slaughter one third of all children who are conceived is enough to cause us to consider this possibility seriously. Note that this has nothing to do with eschatology; Christ was born in 4-6BC, so we are already past the 2000 year mark. Further, in God's grand scheme, mighty America is but a puff of wind; the end of the USA will hit the Kingdom of Jesus Christ with all the terrible impact of a fly slamming into the windshield of a speeding locomotive.
I hope you noticed that I have used the words, "If," "May," "Might," and "Possibly," quite frequently. This is because the totality of the problem is complex beyond human computation. It is simply not possible to predict exactly what will happen. We can act only on the basis of possibilities. I will nonetheless make a fool of myself by hazarding a guess at what is most likely to happen.
There will certainly be problems. Expert predictions range from, "It is not much of an issue at all." to "It will be the end of Western civilization for several generations." Frankly, either extreme may be correct or even understated.
It is my considered opinion that the problems and effects on society will be severe enough to make the history books. The problems are likely to be severe for perhaps three months, with lesser difficulties continuing for a couple of years. For most people, at least some of the goods and services they wish to obtain will simply not be available for some period of time. We almost certainly will have a major economic recession, if not a Great Depression. I base this prediction not on y2k alone, but on macroeconomic factors as well.
Secondary consequences resulting from severe sins in our society, especially envy, abortion, bloated and oppressive government and dishonest banking and commerce, render the probability of extreme difficulties such as riots, social chaos, revolutions and war significant enough that some preparations ought to be made against these events as well. Yet, we must keep in mind when considering "disaster preparations" that we must also prepare for the event that everything will turn out all right as well.
The Scriptures command us to be prudent and wise stewards. God has called each of us to some work in the Lord's service. When we see difficulties coming our way, it is our God given task to respond in such a way as to be able to continuing doing the Lord's work when "it" comes. It is possible, of course, that the Lord may well call us, at least for awhile, to a new work, whether the new work relates to "it" or not. Many writers miss this point. It is possible to expend so much time on disaster preparations, that we are not prepared for "good times".
We must keep in mind our overall objective: We wish to continue doing whatever the Lord has called us to do in spite of foreseen difficulties. We wish to be prepared for the possibility that some of the things which are necessary to our work for the Kingdom of God will suddenly be come unavailable or high priced. Individual, family, church, business and civil needs all need to be considered.
For many people, the simplest decisions in terms of advance preparations are those things which are profitable no matter what happens. For example, it is shown below that you can purchase and store two years of food at zero net cost. Some preparations are extremely cheap if made now instead of later. Other people will feel led to make more expensive and extensive preparations, particularly against serious social collapse and the like.
Finally, it is very important to understand that you can help solve the y2k problem simply by being ready for it. If you are prepared and able to keep doing what God has called you to do, you will not be part of the problem. Not only will you keep doing God's work, but those who depend on your work will not be shut down because you are. Even if you have a "cog in a wheel" job, you are still important. The more people who are prepared, the better off everybody will be.
Before proceeding further let us state in simple terms what it is that we wish to prepare against. Around January of 2000, very many computers will begin to malfunction. These malfunctions will render some number of businesses and other organizations unable to provide goods and services. Some of these outfits will be able to fix or work around their difficulties quickly, some never. If you need these goods and services, you will have to have them in stock or have made alternate arrangements ahead of time. In short, if you want to buy it, you might not be able to. The extent of this problem, its fallout and its duration are a matter of hot debate, are unpredictable and can only be guessed at.
How did some stinking minor issue, namely how computers store dates cause such trouble? The answer is twofold. The first is technical and concerns the inflexibility of computers and difficulty of changing old programs. The second is the combination of our modern dependence on computers and the interconnectedness of our society, particularly in commerce. The fact that nearly everybody will be hit by the problem at the same time is what makes it a national issue. Of course, a godly society would be far better prepared to deal with this problem (or any other problem) than ours; the problem is compounded by sinful practices which make things more unstable.
For awhile, I will talk about computers in order to show clearly why we have such a big problem. If talk of computers bores you to tears, just take my word for it and quickly skim this section.
It is common to write dates in the abbreviated form mm/dd/yy, as for example 7/4/76 for July 4, 1976. Of course, if you wanted to express the date commemorated by Independence Day, you would write 7/4/1776. Information has generally been entered into computers in the shorter form of 07/04/76, or in other forms such as 070476, 760704, etc. This is easier and saves space - and in 1976 space on a computer was very expensive. Also in the fast paced computer world, the year 2000 seemed an eternity away, especially to young programmers, many of whose ages would double before the year 2000. Now consider the difference between 1776 and 1976. There is no way to distinguish between them if you are allowed only two digits. This is exactly our problem; many computers will have no way to distinguish between 1900 and 2000 when they see "00".
Unfortunately, computers are stupid. They have no ability to improvise. They can only do exactly what they are told to do. For this reason, (unless programmed otherwise, which many are not) "00" means 1900 to a computer. A computer would figure interest on a loan of 98 - 95 = 3 years correctly. But 00 - 95 would be minus 95 years. This would cause the computer to halt, or to give wrong answers, such as causing the mortgage company to pay you 95 years interest. A similar problem is caused when programmers use "99" or "00" as special markers, such as "end of run". In these cases, the y2k bug will begin in 1999. Also, the year 2000 may show up sooner than January of 2000 in the case of fiscal years, expiration dates and the like.
This date problem caused by the year 2000 is called by various names such as, "The Year 2000 problem," "The y2k bug," "The Millennium bug," etc. (Note: The term, "bug" is computer slang for defect, a flaw in a program.) We will refer to this as y2k for shorthand in this paper.
A single case of this y2k problem is usually easy to fix. For example you just add a line of code which converts a number greater than 60 to 19xx and anything less than 60 to 20xx. At the same time you change any inputs from 2 digits to 4 digits. The reason this simple fix is a major national, even global, problem is that this kind of mistake is repeated literally billions of times in computers ranging from little ones like the one that runs your VCR to the monsters used by the IRS. The problem is made more difficult because these errors have to be searched out, one by one. If you need to find a random number of needles in a haystack, the only solution is to search the haystack, one piece at a time. Even with technical tricks, such as magnets to attract the needles, the problem is still huge. Other things make the problem even more difficult, such as poor documentation and lack of extra computer resources on old and obsolete machines. These bugs can be fixed, but it takes time, something that is running out fast.
The y2k bug will be found is all types of computers. Some of these computers are large mainframes within organizations with computer professionals on staff. Others may be small and simple such as the computer which runs your VCR or microwave oven. These last two are examples of what are called "microcontrollers", computers which are embedded within another machine. These microcontrollers run everything from automobiles to washing machines to huge electric generators. Examples include:
I continue to hear reports of "silver bullets" and various super fixes which have been invented. Most of these are software tools which improve the productivity of programmers working on y2k repairs for specific systems and specific languages. These reports are often magnified so as to give the impression that our troubles are over. This is just plain false. It is not possible to build a machine that will automatically fix every possible y2k related error and it may never be possible. It certainly will not be possible in the twentieth century. I speak here with no little authority as I have programmed those older mainframe systems and know how primitive things were. Structured programming was unknown. Sneaky tricks, including self modifying code were rampant. Those of you who were not programming mainframes in the 1960s and 1970s will just have to take my word for this. (Yes, I have also contributed my share of y2k bugs.)
Much of the trouble is organizational and has to do with the computer profession. Computer technology is barely more than fifty years old. In my short career, I have watched computers go from discrete transistors to small scale integrated circuitry to today's multimillion transistor processor chips. It should be no surprise that programming methods have been, and still are, quite primitive. Further, the rapid pace of change has caused programs, languages and hardware to become obsolete with almost frightening speed.
These factors have had several consequences. First, companies and government agencies have invested billions of dollars in programs which run their operations. Unfortunately, these programs will only run on one kind of computer, or at best on one series of computer models. This has led to the curious phenomenon of organizations continuing to run and maintain extremely obsolete computers at ridiculous expense. They are locked into this because they have such a huge investment in old software.
This software may contain a large investment, but it is usually poorly written and often written in obsolete languages. Further, programmers have never been good at documentation. As a result, documentation is sparse to non-existent. Also, each programmer has his own style. This makes working with someone else's program difficult. The result of this is that old programs, even well written programs are difficult to debug. Also, it is in the nature of computer programming that even good programmers introduce many errors called, "bugs" into their code. This comes from being fallible humans. The consequence of this is that even supposed "fixes" can cause other, unexpected problems, even problems unrelated to the original problem being repaired. Thus the fixes have to be fixed. It is only half a joke when programmers say that the definition of a "working" program is one that has only unobserved bugs.
Another consequence of the technological change is that in an effort to keep old software useful for as long as possible, hardware and operating systems are often made "backwards compatible". For example, nearly any program written for DOS will work under Windows 95. This is good, but it also means that some bad things are also carried forward. The most notorious example of this is the 640K memory boundary - the reason you can get "out of memory" messages in Windows 3.11 when you have 64 Megabytes of memory. This also means that y2k bugs have been carried forward into even recently made PCs and mainframes.
Finally, computers and computer programs are extremely complex. In fact, computer systems are the most complex things mortal men have ever built. Hardware is complex, but software is even more complex. For this reason, coupled with the native optimism and even hubris necessary to attempt complex projects, computer professionals routinely underestimate project completion times by factors of 2, 3, 5 or more. Actually, a project which is late by a factor of 2 probably has much overtime in it by salaried programmers, so the labor is probably a factor of 3 or more greater than that estimated. It is rare for a programming project of any length to be done on time and under budget. Many projects are never completed and are canceled. Maybe some day project management tools will be invented to help solve this problem, but right now the pattern is disgustingly consistent. Unfortunately, January 1, 2000 is not a movable deadline.
Also, a woman can have a baby nine months after marriage. But, there is no way a man can get a baby in one month by marrying nine wives. In the same way, throwing more programmers (if you can find them) at a project does not necessarily speed it up; experience has shown that this often slows projects down!
In addition, it is true that newer computers are better and faster, but computer programs, even new ones, still have to be typed in one line at a time. Hence the paradox of new mainframes and PCs still running ancient programs.
A complicating factor is organizational. Many small businesses are family owned and the owners are working for their children's future. Most larger corporations however, have lost their original purpose and goals. All too many managers look little past the next quarter's earnings. In fairness, we must note that the equities markets ruthlessly punish companies with lower then expected earnings unless there is some good reason to expect higher profits or equity in the future. For this reason, a company which begins working on the y2k problem in its own computers has a problem. The fix will consume considerable resources and reduce immediate profits. This, of course, reduces next quarter's bonus for the higher executives. It is terribly tempting therefore to just let it slide as long a possible and take early retirement before 2000. In other companies, internal politics and denial will cause inaction. These "irresponsible" companies punish competitors who do spend resources on fixing their y2k bugs in the short term because the fixes raise expenses, force higher prices and consume profits. The net result is that many companies are addressing the problem far too late, if at all. Government agencies have to explain their budgets to congress and thus they face similar problems.
So we see that sin within organizations causes plenty of problems right off. If the problems were limited to individual organizations, the effects might be of little long term consequence for the rest of us. But there are two types of organizations where the problem is particularly acute. The first is banks, and the second is government agencies, both of which were among the earliest users of computers. We will discuss these two problems later on after we look at the immediate consequences of y2k.
Now this has been a lot of discussion, but I believe that it was necessary because those who have not been intimately involved with computers as I have been seem to be unable to grasp how such a simple problem could have such devastating results and be so hard to fix. Yes, the basic problem is simple, but the problem occurs billions of times in computers across the land and is also exacerbated by the involvement of weak, frail and sinful humans. I am one of them and have contributed my share to the problem. The upshot of all this, is that when many organizations finally decide to do something about y2k, the nature of programming guarantees that it is probably way too late. Remember, too that everybody is going to be bitten by the y2k bug at about the same time.
It is important to realize that the timing of the y2k bug is purely technical. It has no eschatological significance whatever. If the Gregorian calendar had started at Christ's Resurrection instead of birth (which was probably 4-6BC anyway), the problem would still be 35 years down the road, instead of 2 years.
The most immediate result of the y2k bug is flawed computer programs. This will cost companies money to fix. This money could have been spent elsewhere, so the cost will be felt in lowered overall productivity, which will in turn result in higher real prices. This result is apparent even now, but will become much more pronounced around January 1, 2000.
The next result of the y2k bug will be yet lower productivity and higher real prices caused by computers which have quit working. If you have ever been in a company where a problem caused a large number of people to scramble around to solve the problem, you have some idea of what is coming - in spades. Typically things get solved by having things Fed-Exed in overnight, assigning overtime, hand carrying paperwork through the system, jury-rigging emergency repairs and the like. All of these things cost extra money and cause more profitable work to remain undone. Even if all of your computers are working properly, you are still likely to have trouble because people you depend on are having trouble. Some examples the y2k bug troubles are:
In addition, due to decreased corporate earnings, we can expect stocks and corporate bonds to go down. Once people realize that government revenues are falling and that tax collection systems are failing, government bonds will also go down. A great deal of "paper wealth" may easily just vanish.
Next time you go shopping, take a look at all the things you buy. You probably buy dozens or even hundreds of different things each month. Some of them you can do without, while not having others, toilet paper for example, will be inconvenient at best. Now consider some of the items and what it takes to get them to you. All of them have to be trucked in from somewhere. The store needs employees, merchandise and some way for you to pay them. Even the simplest merchandise is manufactured, grown or otherwise processed using an incredible array of specialized machinery, materials and supplies. If anything in the chain from raw materials to the checkout counter fails, that item is unavailable until the problem is fixed or some substitute is found. For examples of this interconnectedness consider the following:
What does this all mean to you? Things may or may not be there when you want to buy them. If you do not have them stashed away, you will have to do without or pay a scalper a premium for it. If your company cannot get what it needs to operate, you will suffer when the company has to cease operations. You may thus be without a job. Your personal "misery index" will depend on what goods and services become unavailable. Electricity, gasoline, food, housewares, toys, whatever - everything you have to spend money to get is vulnerable.
Fortunately, if these things are all that happen, you are well off, because it is easy to prepare for these relatively mild events. Indeed, there is little doubt that some things you are used buying will become unavailable for some amount of time. The first big unknown then, is how many things and for how long. Fortunately, it is easy to get cheap or even free "insurance" for this right now.
Due to the high level of uncertainty, one excellent cutoff point in terms of preparations for those who believe that the y2k bug will have only mild to severe impact is to purchase large quantities of necessities wholesale or at good bargain prices. Since necessities (unlike fashions, for example) do not move much in price due to low markups, it is necessary to buy wholesale or in bulk. Additional savings can be had from market or seasonal dips in prices, such as buying propane in the summer or coffee when the market goes down. Stocking up on what you need is a good way to prepare at once for either good times or for much of y2k's worst impact. This is because you are insulated from the failures of businesses to deliver merchandise you need.
Stocking up can actually be done at zero cost. The reason for this is that when you buy ahead of need, the opportunity cost (roughly the returns you would receive if you invest the money instead) is more than offset by the initial savings. For example, if you get a 15% discount by buying a year's supply of some item, but could also invest the purchase cost and get 15% per year return, you do better than break even. Good savings can be had when several families go together to get better quantity discounts. An example will illustrate this. Suppose you have $1200 at the beginning of the year to either spend or invest. You normally spend $100/month on food staples. In each case, the interest on your investment is compounded monthly.
Option 1 - Invest $1200 at beginning of the year and spend $100/month on staple food items purchased at retail and in small quantities:
Expenses: Various Food Staples, Retail cost for 1 year $1200 Invest $1200 for interest of 15% $1200 Total Spent $2400 Benefits: Food Eaten $1200 Reclaim Investment with dividends $1393 Total Benefits $2593 Net Gain $193 Option 2 - Invest $100/month and buy a year's supply of staple food at the beginning of the year at wholesale for a 15% discount: Expenses: Food Staples, Wholesale for 15% cheaper $1020 Invest $100/month $1200 Total Spent $2220 Benefits: Food Eaten (retail value) $1200 Reclaim Investment with dividends $1302 Total Benefits $2502 Net Gain $282
As you can see, investing in food at the beginning of the year allows you to spend $180 dollars less during the year and, in terms of value received, gain $89. Bear in mind that consistent returns of 15% are quite good, especially if the stock market goes down - see above discussion of y2k effects on business expenses - hence profits and stock values. Further, 15% savings for large quantity wholesale purchases of non-perishable food staples is quite reasonable. For this reason, there is really little cost other than your time and effort required to make wholesale purchases and re-arrange things in your house to make room for a bigger pantry, as well as for supplies such as soap, detergent, pet food, diapers, motor oil, heating fuel, etc.
One adjustment will likely prove useful here. If you wait until December of 1999, panics may well have already started, driving up prices. You want to buy before the panic starts. The timing of such things is nearly impossible to predict. For this reason, let us re-do the calculations a bit assuming that you buy bulk staples more than a year in advance.
Option 3 - Invest $2400 at beginning of two years and spend $100/month on staple food items purchased at retail and in small quantities: Expenses: Various Food Staples, Retail cost for 2 years $2400 Invest $2400 for interest of 15% $2400 Total Spent $4800 Benefits: Food Eaten $2400 Reclaim Investment with dividends $3168 Total Benefits $5568 Net Gain $768 Option 4 - Invest $100/month and buy two year's supply of staple food at the beginning of the two year period at wholesale for a 15% discount: Expenses: Food Staples, Wholesale for 15% cheaper $2040 Invest $100/month $2400 Total Spent $4440 Benefits: Food Eaten (retail value) $2400 Reclaim Investment with dividends $2814 Total Benefits $5214 Net Gain $774
Again, with option 4, you spend $360 less and save $6 and gain the benefit of having a good food stash. Each of your investment opportunities will have a certain expected rate of return, expressed as a percent per year. If you can save at least this same percentage by buying necessities in bulk, you can purchase these necessities two years in advance and save money. For the same reason, if your cash flow does not permit large up front investments, you should probably consider withdrawing present investments, especially those which exist only on somebody's computer, and buy necessities in bulk.
There is one potential fly in the ointment here. If cash becomes quite scarce, it could possibly rise in value to more than enough to offset the savings presented here. A factor offsetting this, is that cash (and I am talking about cash stuffed in your mattress, not in the bank!) earns no interest.
Before going further, it is important to address the issue of the difficulties in making predictions regarding y2k. After this, we will move on to the secondary and tertiary effects of y2k.
When it comes to social interactions and large computer systems, it is not possible to predict exactly what will happen. An example will help illustrate the reason for this. You have to travel a couple of hundred miles. Suppose you are offered a ride as a passenger in an old dilapidated car with barely working brakes being driven by a drunk who is still pulling on the bottle. Further, up ahead, at about the halfway point of your journey, there is fog and a construction zone with poorly placed barricades. Where will you have the fatal wreck? While certainly many people will exclaim, "We will be all killed!", the driver might say, "Naw, we'll make it." - and he might be right! Careful reflection will reveal that the outcome cannot actually be predicted. After all, if every drunk killed himself on the road, we would not need any drunk driving laws! Further, there are many outcomes possible including:
The point of this seemingly silly scenario is simple. The future is complex and unpredictable. We can only speak in terms of probabilities. Each possible branch in the list of possibilities has many sub-branches. Yet the fact remains that the trip has many hazards, at least one of which is particularly dangerous. Now let us consider the decision. You may decide to reject the proffered ride and suffer the consequences of delays, higher costs, etc. You may accept the ride, but attempt to get the driver's seat. The driver might be your boss or you may be afraid to look "chicken". You may just adjust your seat belt meticulously. You might fight for the front seat in front of the passenger's side airbag. You might sneak in and call the cops and hope they stop you before a wreck happens. You might even just say to heck with it and take a nap in the back seat. Your problem is more complicated of course, if your children are with you. In all events, if you prepare for one specific outcome, you will probably prepare wrong to some extent because of the multiplicity of branches and the large number of possibilities. Yet, to blindly ignore the danger is obviously foolish. This illustration gives a fair taste of the problems confronting us in regards predicting the outcomes related to the y2k bug.
Another factor that makes accurate predictions impossible is that the whole y2k issue is in a state of flux. Therefore it is wise to keep abreast of developments. Only beware of liars who say that everything is under control. The only person who has everything under control, maybe, is someone who has a fully repaired and thoroughly tested system.
So far, we have assumed that things will begin to get back to normal after a time. This is not unlikely at all. The biggest reason for this is that most people will have an incentive to overcome their difficulties. If you can get to work because you have a five gallon can of gas in your garage, you will be a better employee than the guy who cannot make it to work. If your business has a generator and a stash of critical supplies and merchandise, you will make money while your competitors fume. If your church has heat and power and the one down the street does not, you may well get a few extra visitors. Even businesses and organizations which do experience total shutdown will scramble very hard to get back in operation. The powerful effect of competition is one matter overlooked by some of those who confidently predict total collapse. Sadly, the issue is yet more complicated.
If the y2k problem was limited to computers and their effects on business, it would be probable that the matter would largely occupy the attention of business managers and computer jocks. That y2k will be an historic event, possibly even threatening American society as we know it now is due to the poor spiritual condition of the country. There are major areas of sin which make the problem into a monster. An example may help clarify this point. Suppose that two people, their families with them, have flat tires. The first person, being responsible has a jack and inflated spare. He fixes the problem and goes on. The second, having earlier been unwilling to buy a jack and good spare tire, now has to pay premium prices to get back on the road again. Angry with the situation, he takes it out on his wife and children, accusing them of leaving nails in the driveway and beats them. A cop drives by and tries to stop the beating and a gun fight ensues and people are killed. The initial problem is the same, but the results are very different and depend upon how sinful humans respond to their circumstances. One might argue in the second case, that a flat tire got people killed, but the second man would likely have gotten himself in trouble sometime anyway, even if his tire never went flat.
These two examples illustrate what confronts us. In an ideal world, people would have the wisdom and discipline to save ahead for the future and prepare for emergencies. People would help one another out and not rob one another. The real problem is not the computer problem, but how sinful humans respond to it. As we noted above, there are some "natural" consequences to our sin, and some other reasons why we may be due for God's wrath to fall on us. We are already due for much more trouble than we might have otherwise had because of procrastination and shortsighted management. We will now examine some of the "natural" consequences of sin in more detail.
The problem with banks is twofold. First, a typical large bank has from 100 to 500 million lines of computer program code running on different computers. (This paper you are reading has fewer than 3200 lines of type.) Each line has to be at least inspected, one line at a time. Banks are among the earliest commercial users of computers. Many of these programs were written years ago and the original human readable source code may be lost. The original language may be obsolete. These are not insurmountable problems, but they do take time to fix. In the mean time, when 2000 comes these problems had better be solved. Otherwise, any checks written on accounts at that bank cannot be processed and people with accounts at the bank cannot get their money. If enough banks fail to process electronic transactions, be they check, credit card, debit card, wire or other transactions, businesses cannot do business. Commerce shuts down. People might want to revert to cash, but it is highly questionable whether the government could print enough cash soon enough for everybody's needs. Even if depositors could get their money out of their accounts in the form of cash, a second problem rears its ugly head.
The second problem is in the nature of the banking system itself. The human wallet is an extremely sensitive part of the anatomy. Nothing seems to get people's attention so quickly as money issues. Thus, the mere threat of bank failure, or even temporary closure will cause people to scramble to get their money out of the bank before it shuts down. The first people in line get their money; the rest are hung out to dry. A similar thing happens when people lose faith in the stock market and pull their money out. But there is a difference. People understand that they might lose money in the stock market. Thus, even if the stock market crashes, people can still hold the stocks in the hope that they will go up again. Further, in the stock market, it is well advertised that, "You pays your money and you takes your chance." But banks falsely pretend that your money is perfectly safe. Banks only hold a small percentage, typically 10% or less of their deposits on hand for checking accounts and even less for other accounts. Thus if more than 10% of depositors withdraw their money, the bank is out of money. If the bank can borrow money, it might stay afloat. If not, they are forced to close. So far, the FDIC has insured depositors successfully, but only because few banks have failed so completely that they could not be bought out by other banks or by other means rescued. The problem here is the same as with any insurance company - if there are enough claims, the insurance company itself, in this case the FDIC, fails. Even if the Federal Reserve steps in, it will be some time before they could print enough cash (Federal Reserve Notes) to take up the slack in any short amount of time. Theoretically the Federal reserve could print and hand out checks, but they need working computers to do that. The net result is that many people may not have access to their money. Already, one major corporation is planning to have all of its assets out of banks by 2000. That may be too late if the bank runs begin earlier. It is possible that the federal government will try to rescue the banks, but they are the other problem.
If enough banks fail, commerce will come to a halt because there is no money and no safe way to transfer money, if you can get it, except by armored car. If only a few banks fail, than things will go on and those who have their money in failed banks will get it someday. It is for this reason that you should have some ready cash and only keep a minimal amount of money in the bank. Since some people are already preparing for the "big day", the runs on banks may start at any time.
It is also worth mentioning in passing that the Federal reserve has some morally questionable ways of controlling the money supply, two of which depend upon fractional reserve banking. The first is that they set the interest rate at which banks can borrow from the Fed. The second is that they set the percentage of money that banks must keep in reserve for various accounts. When they control the money supply, they actually change what the money in your wallet and bank account is worth without so much as a "by your leave". If the money supply is increased relative to the demand for money, the value of money goes down (in terms of purchasable goods) and you have inflation. They can also just print money and hand it to the Federal government. This is another way to cause inflation.
How long it will take banks to get things going again is debatable. If bankers are smart and concentrate on simple core operations such as wire transfers, checking and savings accounts, credit cards and loans, they might come out with little damage if they are able to quickly resume operations. In such an event, bondholders, trust holders, and others with more complex transactions may have to wait longer or pay a premium for manual handling. Much computer complexity in banks also involves interbank loans and other complex financial transactions. The need for such complexity may be reduced, but at a cost in operating efficiency and interest payments. To give you an idea of how important such things are, consider that on some loans, interest is computed to the nearest thousandth of a second.
Let us make no mistake here. If the banks quit working, whether due to runs, financial difficulties or operational (computer) problems, most commerce will come to a screeching halt. There simply is not enough cash in circulation to make up for "computer money" such as checking accounts. If commerce halts, so does the supply of everything from apples to zircons. For this reason, one short term strategy is to have at least a month's living expenses in cash, kept at home in a well hidden fireproof container. In addition, it is possible, that even as productivity plummets, that prices may also go down due to a scarcity of cash. In this deflationary scenario, cash could be worth so much more than normal that its value goes up faster than real prices. It will be a race between the scarcity of goods and the scarcity of cash. Note also, that if things do not get too bad, cash is more liquid and preferable to gold or silver. Gold and silver will be very valuable in the event that the public loses faith in the dollar, whether due to governmental collapse or hyperinflation.
At all events, it is certain that the government cannot just print more cash instantly. By not retiring worn bills, and adding zeros, the government can print more cash given time, but cash will be valuable in the short term at least. Because of this, be alert for reports of the Fed printing extra cash. If they do, that will change things and make inflation very possible unless they are carefully only replacing "computer money" with paper money.
So far, we have assumed that most of our problems are with businesses and their computers. However hard businesses, including banks, are hit, there is one redeeming feature here. Free market competition will provide a powerful incentive for employees and managers to find ways around their problems and get back into operation before their competitors do. Those that find themselves behind will furiously play catch-up or go out of business. Businesses that fail will be replaced by eager competitors.
The biggest potential problems are at once the least likely and the most severe. They also all relate, at least to some extent, to government stupidity and sin. But first, let us note that there are some positive and useful things civil governments can do. For example, States can force moratoria on the more severe collection actions such as lawsuits, foreclosures and repossessions for debtors who have some reasonable hope of repayment, such as someone whose bank account is frozen. All governments can unburden businesses of many useless reports and grant automatic license, permit and even passport renewals for a period of time. Governments can simplify banking regulations for basic checking accounts and wire transfers and allow banks to get their systems up and running quicker in the most important areas. Of course, there are many ways all governments need to get out of our hair, but these suggestions do not involve any politically sensitive permanent policy changes.
Unfortunately, all too many Americans are dependent upon federal and other levels of
government. When the government is unable to provide welfare and other "benefits",
people will suffer. This problem will affect everybody from the bum on welfare to the
megabank that needs an FDIC bailout. Government computers have always been
outmoded and behind the times. It takes about a year and a half for the federal
government to issue a purchase order for a computer. In that time, computer speed and
power will have doubled, so that the government gets only half of what it paid for.
Similar bureaucratic bungling affects software written for and by the government. There
is no question that the Federal Government is much more vulnerable than any other
organization to y2k because of their large numbers of outmoded and difficult to
maintain computers and software. Because of these factors, the Federal government is
extremely vulnerable to computer errors. This has a number of consequences such as:
They will lie about the problem. This is already happening.
Welfare checks will not be sent, or will be wrong.
Tax collection will be in chaos, if not shut down.
Permits, passports, licenses and other legally required items will be unavailable or
difficult to obtain.
Innocent people will be mistakenly subject to criminal and civil enforcement actions.
Criminals will remain free due to errors in records.
Federal law enforcement agencies and the military will experience weapons systems and
logistics problems.
The problems caused by malfunctioning governments at the Federal, State and local
levels are particularly acute due to their unbiblical and unconstitutional massive
intrusions into daily life.
One consequence of government error could be hyperinflation. If this happens, spend your cash quickly and buy necessities or gold or silver. Hyperinflation is very possible if the government tries to "bail out" everybody's difficulties at the same time that tax revenues are way down due to economic recession or a non functioning IRS. This points out one of the problems with making concrete predictions: If the government computers are down, they cannot spend money. If the government computers are up, they can cause hyperinflation. Most likely the government computers will be up and generating tremendous numbers of errors. What will happen then is anybody's guess. The government has historically been a strange mixture of occasional high competence and sheer bumbling. Add in the factor of unreliable computers and it will be like being in a room with an elephant having epileptic fits.
A secondary, but very possible consequence of governmental failures is civil unrest. Riots in major cities have occurred for the most trivial of reasons such as electrical power failures and sports team victories. When welfare stops, it is highly probable that the hotheads will take to the streets. In addition, America has many enemies, inside and outside of government, foreign and domestic, who would be happy to incite riots and attempt revolutions.
One of the most severe problems will be in the area of tax collection. Without taxes, governments cannot function. The Federal government is in the worst shape here. While there might be many cheers at the IRS's demise, if we want a Federal government at all, we need taxation. The alternative is for each State to have its own diplomatic corps, army, navy, etc. Also, due to the unconstitutional Federal takeover of the State militia (National Guard) units, they have the only effective military force in the country.
Taxation in the form of income taxes and property taxes are both inherently complex. What many people do not realize is that even the so-called "flat tax" is only simpler once your income has been determined. For a person whose only income is wages, this is not a problem. Determining the income from investments and businesses, however remains complex. These complexities translate into complex and difficult to fix computer programs. It is true, however, that there is still room for a very major reduction in the complexity of the Internal Revenue Code. One might think that the y2k problem would be an excellent opportunity to simplify the Code. Unfortunately this is a political decision that is likely to take many months. In this case, as they say, the devil is in the details. Value added taxes are common in Europe and are an administrative nightmare. The idea of a national sales tax has some merit - the government takes a fixed percentage of all retail cash register receipts, except perhaps, groceries for example. Flat customs taxes on foreign imports would work the same way and be even simpler. Still, this is another political decision that will take many months. On top of that computer programs will need to be changed. If this decision is not made very soon, it will be too late.
The impact of y2k on the IRS in particular will be awful at best. First their computers are known to be in bad shape in terms of y2k. At the best of times the IRS is slow and unresponsive to taxpayer queries. IRS computer and other errors are agonizingly slow and tedious to get changed, even when the IRS admits you are right. If the IRS is slow in getting refunds out in the spring of 2000, or deluges people with erroneous notices, they may well be faced with an outright taxpayer revolt by citizens already hard pressed by a y2k induced economic downturn. A revolt may also start if word gets out that the IRS is not able to tell who has paid and who has not. And if a revolt starts, very many otherwise fairly honest people will find the temptation to also quit paying taxes irresistible if they know that many others have quit paying - people hate to see the other guy getting a better deal than they are.
One partial solution may be for the government to issue emergency regulations extending the audit and record keeping period from 3 to, say, 10 years. The idea is that tax cheats will be caught eventually. How much effect this would have is debatable given the short term mentality of many people.
If the Federal government is unable to collect taxes, their options are limited. The best option is to quickly reform the system, but this is extremely unlikely. If they resort to armed force, they risk civil war. If they borrow money, the financial markets may be in turmoil and they may have to pay premium interest - if anybody will buy their notes. They could print money, but this will lead to inflation.
It seems that the only possible solution is to severely terminate all spending not essential to national defense or criminal and civil justice. This includes all welfare, including Social Security and most regulatory agencies. There will be riots, but at least they will occur before 2000 when we will have other problems. These welfare and regulatory agencies are unlikely to be functioning well or efficiently anyway due to computer troubles. By cutting expenses, they may well be able to borrow money until income from a simplified tax system such as a national sales tax or a flat customs tax on imports or both kicks in. Am I dreaming? Probably. You and I both know that such a reasonable proposal is totally outside the imagination of the bureaucrats and crooked politicians and lawyers in Washington. What will happen in the government is nearly impossible to predict, but there do seem to be at least two reasonably safe predictions if the government stays in business at all. First, the Feds will find some way, eventually, to start collecting taxes again, no matter how much damage they have to do to in the meantime. Second, the government will continue to spend and waste taxpayer's money. Only very extreme conditions such as foreign conquest or revolutions are likely to change these outcomes.
Still, it is just possible that Conservatives can rise up and push for reform, especially as many people see just how useless most of the Federal government has become. Be alert for this opportunity.
I mentioned regulatory reports, permits, licenses, etc. above. This is a potential problem area for many businesses. It seems logical that if government computers cannot process such stuff that it is not reasonable to require it. Unfortunately logic seems to have little value in Washington. It is not impossible the businesses will have the hard choice between breaking laws and watching less scrupulous competitors take business away from them.
Along the same lines, many institutions and markets have been horribly distorted by heavy handed government action, of which medical care is the prime example. The Medicare computer systems are in such bad shape that the government spent 41 million dollars in an unsuccessful attempt to design (not build) a modern claims processing system. The only outcome of the project was a complete set of specifications for the system. The shock to the medical industry of a sudden collapse of Medicare will likely cause great turmoil. This is in addition to their own y2k problems. Plan on not getting sick.
We must not forget however that one reason why governments have gotten so bloated is that there are people who live off the rest of us and they vote. (People who receive government money ought not to be allowed to vote!) Some of these people, such as judges and the FBI give useful service for their pay; justice is a prime concern of civil government. Others, such many of those serving in the armed forces also give the taxpayer value for his hard earned money at the risk of their lives. The fact remains however, that the largest number of those receiving government money are parasites. Bureaucrats at agencies which have no Constitutional authority are prime examples. Other parasites include welfare (individual and corporate) recipients.
Social Security recipients may well present a special case - they were sucked into a Ponzi scheme and given no choice in their participation. Yet, it is possible that y2k will be the death of Social Security. The so-called "Social Security Trust Fund" is actually government debt. It is like using your Visa to pay off your Master Card. The result is that Social Security is entirely dependent on current income and has NO assets whatever. If tax collections fail, Social Security fails also, at least until tax collections resume. Medicare is in the same boat. On the brighter side, the Social Security Administration is farthest along in its y2k repairs. They have been at it since 1990. (Last place in preparations goes to the Federal Emergency Management Agency!)
Wealthy corporate welfare recipients may be the most disgusting, but inner city welfare recipients present the most potential for civil disorder. When the "bread and circuses" stop, the riots will begin. This is a highly likely outcome since the entire "social services" racket is horribly complex and confusing even to trained "social workers". To expect all of their computers to continue to function seems hardly reasonable. While the interruption (at least) of welfare will present ministry opportunities for churches to introduce the love of Christ and the genuine life changing power of the Holy Spirit to many poor who have nowhere else to turn, the rioters in their midst will make this kind of ministry much more difficult.
Probably the biggest danger from governments, especially the Federal government will be their attempts to "fix" our problems. The federal government, in particular, is incompetent enough with working computers. There will be a terrible temptation for the Federal and other governments to impose unconstitutional and immoral laws which restrict our liberties and the power of the free market to sort out the problem solvers from the turkeys in the business world. Such attempts must be strenuously resisted by everyone who loves liberty. Examples of such tyranny include (but are not limited to):
While the Federal government is the biggest problem and the least responsive to citizens, State and local governments to one degree or another face the same kinds of problems. Overall, it is not possible to predict just what any branch of government will do. It would be nice to think that the era of big government is over. Unfortunately, the lure of money and power is too great for even the Federal government to go out quietly. How much damage they do thrashing around trying to find solutions remains to be seen. It is obvious that much could be gained by simplifying laws, both from a social benefit standpoint and from a computer programming standpoint. It is unlikely however that enough congressmen will understand this to do any good. In any event, these changes, if made, would take time to implement, particularly because of their political nature. Unfortunately, there is simply no time left.
All too many people seem to take it for granted that our present intrusive and bloated government is "just the way things are." Have you ever wondered how it is that more and more time and money is spent on paperwork in spite of all of the computers we now have? Part of the reason is that computers have made it possible for governments to impose more paperwork and regulations without making everyone into a full time bureaucrat. The fact of the matter is, the extreme complexity we now have is of fairly recent origin. America grew up to be a world power in an age when most Americans lived their entire lives without ever coming into contact with the Federal government, except perhaps to serve in the armed forces.
In the Great Depression, many people helped one another out. There was also a basic honesty that pervaded the business world. Many deals were concluded only by spoken word or by a handshake to a degree that is unimaginable today. In addition, crime, especially violent crime, was far, far lower. Divorce was relatively uncommon. When we consider the current epidemic of dishonesty, crime and violence, it is worth asking ourselves how well we might withstand another Great Depression or any other form of severe difficulty. We must bear this problem in mind in examining the whole y2k issue. This problem is another of the potential "natural" consequences of our sin as opposed to the somewhat separate issue of whether the wrath of God will fall on us and whether God might use y2k as part of the means of judging us for other sins.
An illustration of what I am talking about here is found in 2 Kings 6:25-29 - "And there was a great famine in Samaria; and indeed they besieged it until a donkey's head was sold for eighty shekels of silver, and one-fourth of a kab of dove droppings for five shekels of silver. Then, as the king of Israel was passing by on the wall, a woman cried out to him, saying, "Help, my lord, O king!" And he said, "If the LORD does not help you, where can I find help for you? From the threshing floor or from the winepress?" Then the king said to her, "What is troubling you?" And she answered, "This woman said to me, 'Give your son, that we may eat him today, and we will eat my son tomorrow.' "So we boiled my son, and ate him. And I said to her on the next day, 'Give your son, that we may eat him'; but she has hidden her son.""
Before leaving the discussions of morals, we would each of us do well to examine ourselves and ask the Lord to show us those sins of which we need to repent. In addition, much of the discussion of y2k is necessarily of money, economics and material concerns. For this reason, this may be an excellent opportunity for us to examine ourselves and our attitudes towards material things, the quality of our stewardship and our devotion to Jesus Christ.
So far, we see only "natural" consequences resulting from the y2k bug. The primary cause is purely mechanical. We live in a fallen world since Eden, and Murphy's Law is just the engineer's share of, "Cursed is the ground for your sake; In toil you shall eat of it all the days of your life." The Lord makes the rain (and the floods) come on the just and the unjust. Many of the secondary causes will be the direct result of sin. By allowing civil governments to step far outside their Scripturally ordained bounds and by letting governments do jobs God gave to families and churches, we will only reap a just reward when government computers fail. We will reap also the fruit of dishonest banking. Yet, there is more.
God does not need human errors to bring judgement. Sodom and Gomorrah found that out the hard way. On the other hand, when David sinned in the case of Uriah's wife, he brought turmoil into his own family and civil war upon Israel. God can and does use the "natural" consequences of people's sin to bring His judgments upon them. I do not pretend to predict the Will of God in this matter. Yet the historical record of Scripture and "secular" history is clear: God will not leave sin unpunished. The question before us is not if, but when. When David sinned by numbering Israel, the divine judgement was immediate. But God also waited over 400 years for the Canaanites to fill up their measure of wrath before bringing Israel into their land to drive out and destroy them.
There is great sin in America including, but not limited to:
These things and the just wrath of God should cause us consider whether some of the more pessimistic possibilities will occur as a means of divine judgement on our society. It is difficult to build, but easy to burn down and destroy. Because of our unbiblical "justice" system, there is little incentive for those who have little or nothing to not loot, steal and burn when they think that the "system" has failed them. So far, riots have been centered largely in inner cities. Given the mobility made available by automobiles, there is really no reason for this geographical limitation.
Also, would be tyrants, revolutionaries, anarchists and just plain scoundrels have long used civil unrest as a means to power. So effective is civil unrest in helping wicked people gain power that they will often incite unrest. This is like the wicked physician who makes his patient ill so he can be a hero and "cure" the victim and take his money.
America has been at peace for so long, that security is generally weak. A single high powered rifle bullet can shut down or even destroy a million dollar electrical substation transformer. Power lines are open and vulnerable. The distribution facilities of telephone, natural gas and water systems are not as visible, but also vulnerable. This lack of security is repairable, but at cost. First, the damage must be fixed. Secondly, security measures are expensive and need to be paid for somehow, and that somehow is the customer.
Another very possible consequence of civil unrest is severe government tyranny in the form of rationing, martial law, house to house searches, wage and price controls, travel restrictions, financial restrictions and what not. In an extreme case the very form of our governments, including our cherished Constitution may be overthrown by wicked tyrants.
Preparations for these types of more extended and difficult troubles are more problematic. Security becomes a large issue. Those who are provident are "capitalist pigs", those who save for a rainy day are "hoarders" and those who want to keep the fruit of their hard labor are "greedy". Ownership of firearms and plenty of ammunition is a necessity as the police (assuming they are still alive and serving the public) do not have the manpower or the response time to protect individual homes and business. Security precautions, whether public or private, will consume time and resources. Freedoms are likely to be curtailed, whether by official action or by danger. Indeed this result is a standard aim of revolutionaries and guerrillas.
At the same time, history shows that revolutions and conditions of anarchy rarely last more than a few years, if for no other reason than that after that time, there is nothing left to steal and nobody left alive who is not on the "right side". People will demand protection from anybody who will offer it to them at any price. Wars, including civil wars, can and do last longer. Given the poor moral condition of the USA, it is unlikely that the outcome of any serious civil unrest will be anything resembling the moderately free society we presently enjoy today.
Americans enjoy more liberty than citizens of any other country in the world, but if conditions deteriorate too much, flight to another country becomes a realistic option. Unfortunately, Europe is even more bureaucratized than America. Further, the moral condition of Europe is generally worse and governments are more socialistic. In addition, European governments and banks are further behind in y2k preparations than are American governments and banks. Finally, in the financial arena, the scheduled currency conversion to the "Euro" complicates things greatly. Asia is presently in a severe economic crisis. For these reasons, there is a high probability that flight out of America would be into Third or Fourth World conditions. For this reason, we have much incentive to stick it out and get our problems solved.
Given all of this, it becomes reasonable to consider longer term and more serious and extensive preparations. The probability of nuclear war sometime within the next 50 years is significant. Indeed it would seem almost impossible that there would not be at least one nuclear war within the next 100 years. Even without the y2k bug, "minor" events such as floods, severe weather, power grid failures and whatnot deserve some consideration, not to mention war, civil war, insurrections and economic collapse, events of which history is full. Indeed, from a historical perspective, we are right now living in a truly unusually extended time of peace and prosperity.
By now, you are probably scratching your head and asking, "Could all this really happen? The answer is certainly, "Yes, it could happen." But I certainly do not want to give the impression that it must happen. Let us therefore review the situation once more before going on into details. Here, also, I will go out way out on a limb and give you my guesses as to the chances of some events. Notice that I said, "guess." My guesses are educated guesses, but I have no objective way to prove my numbers.
Some computer programs have already begun to malfunction due to century date problems. Starting as early as 1998, when some fiscal years 1999 begin, many more computer programs will begin to malfunction. The peak of trouble will be in January of 2000 and problems will be popping up at times at least through the end of the year until everyone has done their last reports and tax returns for calendar or fiscal year 2000. That this will happen is certain.
The magnitude of the problem however, is a matter of considerable debate. What is a matter of even more debate is the effect that these problems will have. Much depends on advance preparations, most importantly fixing computer programs and embedded controllers prior to 2000. Right behind this in importance is preparing for when needed y2k repairs are missed or turn out to be incorrect. The importance of good backups cannot be overemphasized. Manual or alternate procedures should be prepared in advance.
Next in importance is how well all people (not just computer professionals!) are able to handle short term interruptions in computer service and in the availability of other goods and services ranging from electric power to pig iron. Finally, remember that it is the interconnectedness and interdependence of our society that makes many predictions difficult.
Here then is a summary of some of the possibilities with my guesses:
Computer and Business Related (i.e. problems directly related to computer operations):
Some computer systems of all sizes and kinds will fail. (100%)
For: Computer programmers are as human and short sighted as the
rest of the human race.
Against: Wishful thinking.
Most small businesses will be impacted relatively mildly. (80%)
For: Small businesses are able to respond quickly to challenges.
The scale of most operations is such that many things can be done
by hand if necessary. Owners have a direct long term interest in
the business's future. Small business's are harder for government
bureaucrats to harass. Their computer systems are newer PCs. Their
business software is often pre-packaged, and if not, packaged
software such as QuickBooks will do most of what they need to do.
Against: Small businesses often lack specialized expertise.
Insufficient capital is a very common problem in smaller businesses.
Medium sized companies have some of the advantages and disadvantages
of both small and large companies. Many will be shut down and some
will be forced out of business. (60%)
For: Many mid sized companies are owned by families whose founders
or offspring are ready to retire. Many have established a market
niche and have a traditional base of customers, neither of which
could likely be regained if once lost.
Against: Many mid sized firms will have kept their vision and are
as nimble as smaller companies and have more adequate capitalization
and in house expertise.
Many, if not most, large corporations in traditional businesses
will be severely affected. (70%)
For: Many of these companies have old software which is highly customized and difficult
to maintain and repair. A good many of these are known to be unrepairable in the less
than two years left. They are often bureaucratic and some are about as nimble and
mobile as a battleship in port. Many middle managers are gone due to automation, yet
those functions which displaced them are the most difficult to program. They have many
resource needs and often use highly specialized parts and equipment. Their products are
often complex and require many parts; the lack of one part can prevent production. The
very things that give them economies of scale will work against them when things go
wrong. For example customer service systems will be quickly overwhelmed by problems.
Many such firms use JIT ("Just In Time") inventory systems which will turn into "Just Isn't
There".
Against: They often have heavy capital resources and can buy what they need from
peanuts to presidents. They will often have some of the best and brightest people on
their staffs. They may be considered by the government to be important national assets
and thus obtain taxpayer assistance.
Large corporations in High Technology industries will be better off than traditional
industries, but will still have problems. (70%) All of the remarks about large corporations
above apply, but ...
For: They will have large numbers of technically oriented and "problem solving" types on
staff. They will also have newer data processing systems and less older "legacy" software.
Management is usually less centralized and rigid as other companies the same size.
Against: Competition is usually intense and managers may feel that there is little time
for "non-essential" problems.
A significant number of banks will have computer difficulties which will lead to
operational problems and even shutdowns. (70%)
For: Banks are among the oldest users of computers. Many are also tradition oriented
and all are subject to exacting and detailed government laws and regulations which give
them little room to maneuver and improvise.
Against: Core operations such as checking accounts are basically simple compared with
the processing involved with complex financial transactions. If banks can concentrate on
getting their core operations fixed before 2000, they may come out of this OK.
With regard to State and local governments, it is not possible to generalize by the type, but only by size. After all, Los Angeles has a greater population than about half the States.
Small governments will have administrative difficulties, but these can be handled so as to
have minimal impact on citizens. (80%)
For: Citizens of smaller, and especially rural areas, are more independent and do not
depend on government services to a large degree. People often know one another and
many have extended families close by. Many computerized tasks can be done by hand if
necessary or simply be left undone.
Against: Federal or State regulations and laws require many fairly useless reports and
activities. Subsidies from the Federal or State level may stop. Some localities depend on
the State to collect even their local taxes.
Mid sized governments will have a difficult time. The more complex and intrusive the
government, the more trouble they will have. (70%)
For: Most State and large city governments have all of the same problems as large
corporations for the same reasons and then some. Every decision they make is ultimately
political and subject to endless hearings, approvals and paperwork. Government
employees are often poorly motivated. Governments have no profit motive and no
competition, hence little motivation to improve operations. Legally required interactions
with the Federal government will complicate many matters and Federal subsidies may
cease.
Against: Political pressure from the public will be enormous if thing go poorly.
The Federal government will be a mixture of somewhat normal operations, chaos and
complete shutdowns of its various agencies. The worst possible results will come from
agencies which are able to continue operating, but whose computers generate massive
errors and confusion. (98%)
For: Some of you may remember the old "punch cards." These were first used in
mechanical tabulators for the census in the 19th century. The Federal Government (and
the British government) are the oldest users of electronic computers. Many Federal
agencies have not even inventoried their collection of computer programs, much less
begun repairs which will take years to complete. Many government employees rank as
the least motivated of any. Every decision is political and bureaucracy makes fast
decision making impossible in most places. Even agencies that are themselves y2k
prepared (if any) depend ultimately on tax collection.
Against: The tooth fairy may come to the rescue. A very few agencies have made some
reasonable progress. The Social Security Administration is almost unique in this area;
they just might finish their y2k work, but they live hand to mouth from taxes which
must be collected and which will decrease in an economic downturn.
Secondary Effects:
Commerce in general will take a hard immediate hit. However, even as government
agencies are paralyzed, the powerful incentives of competition and the wolf howling at
the door will motivate businesses and employees to find and implement solutions to
problems. Businesses and workers who are successful at this will displace those who are
not. (75%)
For: The free market and American ingenuity are the two factors that many of the more
pessimistic writers may have overlooked. Necessity is the mother of invention and there
will be many big necessities, and many inventions. Stock up on duct tape and baling wire.
Against: Banking system failures, heavy handed and incompetent government
intervention, and widespread civil unrest are the main potential problems.
Banks are particularly vulnerable and will be subject to runs and failures. This will bring
commerce and the economy to a standstill. (50%)
(Note: This is a different category than the one on banks above, which puts bank
computer difficulties at 70%.) This is one fairly unpredictable area of human mass
psychology. Whether the runs start or not, I don't know. There is little doubt however,
that if runs start, banks will be closed (by bank holiday or permanently) and people will
not be able to get their money for some unknown period of time. If people demand cash,
the problem will be much more severe since most "money in the bank" is merely
"computer money" and not cash.
For: Fractional reserve banking depends on the lie that everybody can always get their
money. This is false. The first in line will get their money and the rest will go away empty
handed. The Bureau of Printing and Engraving does not have the excess capacity to
quickly create new paper money to replace "computer money".
Against: The Federal Reserve has a degree of technical expertise and competence that is
rare in the Federal government. (Actually, they are a privately owned corporation, but
have so much authority that they might as well be a fourth branch of the Federal
government.) They are aware of the problems associated with y2k and are actively
pursuing solutions, both in their own organization and to assist banks in difficulty with
both financial and data processing assistance. There is some reasonable chance that they
will be of significant help. Also, many businesses will be in a position to simply extend
payables and receivables until the banks can resume normal operations. In a few cases,
accounts receivable may even used as negotiable instruments.
Here, my political convictions will show most strongly. The shutdowns of the Federal government occasioned by congressional wrangling did not affect me one bit. When y2k clobbers Federal operations, there will be huge differences of opinion between taxpayers and tax eaters. One obvious solution to many Federal computer difficulties will be to make the computer work easier by simplifying and eliminating laws and regulations. Unfortunately, such decisions are highly political and will not be made any time soon. The Internal Revenue Code is a prime example. How the on earth is a citizen supposed to be law abiding when even a lawyer often cannot find out what the law says or means? Because the Federal government is so intrusive and affects so many people, we must consider a few questions separately and make guesses on separate questions.
A good many people will, by first hand experience, begin to learn that most of what the
Federal government does is useless, nearly useless or outright detrimental. (60%)
For: Many government agencies will shut down and people will simply have to make do.
Against: The welfare mentality, government schools and other factors have created a
culture where some assumptions will simply remain unchallenged.
The failure of some Federal agencies to issue checks will result in massive rioting and
civil unrest. The riots are likely even to spread to the suburbs. (50%)
For: Riots have resulted from sports team victories, electrical power outages and other
trivial events. Many of those dependent on handouts have never been in a Third World
country; they think they have no stake in the "system" and nothing to lose by destroying
it.
Against: If agencies are smart, they could just postpone the problems or even stave them
off by resetting the computer date to the previous month, restoring from backup tapes
and sending out checks exactly as they did in the last time. They just might be able to do
this before unrest gets too bad. Also, if it is the calendar year that trips the failure (and
not the Federal fiscal year) the cold weather in January may forestall some riots in
northern cities. Also, government agencies might recognize that problems are coming
and make successful preparations in at least this one area.
There will be significant permanent changes in the way the Federal government operates, or even a change in the basic structure of American civil government. (60%)
One way to help in this matter is to vigorously resist any attempt to change our Constitution. The present political climate, much less a climate of unrest, can only lead to very detrimental changes.
The y2k bug will bite all industrialized nations. Most European governments are even more incredibly more bureaucratic than ours. Many nations will face many of the same problems we face and the resulting impacts on commerce and banking, national and international, will be the same. International trade will affected in the same way as intra- national trade. Historically, starting a war has been an effective way for a government to get its people off its back and attempt to solve economic problems. One might think that nobody would start a war with the USA, but there is no guarantee of this, especially as Slick Willy has gutted and neutered our military.
Tertiary Effects:
Finally, we must remember that given our sins, it is not at all impossible that God might use y2k to judge us, either by making the "natural consequences" of our sin more severe, or by bringing worse disasters upon us. I refuse to guess here and assign any probabilities.
Some other preparations can be made with little cost. Drinking water can be stored in inexpensive containers and water for washing and toilet flushing can be stored in old 55 gallon barrels. Many places give away old shipping pallets ("skids") which can be cut up and stashed for firewood. Old newspapers are useful for many reasons and should be stashed. For example, they can be stuffed inside clothing or bedding for an excellent cold weather clothing booster. A pot of water can be raised to boiling, then placed in a newspaper insulated box where the contents of the pot will continue to cook for an hour without continuing to burn scarce fuel. Candles, kerosene heaters and lanterns and charcoal grills can make a world of difference when there is no electricity and have other uses as well. All camping equipment fits into this dual use category well. Fifteen gallons of gas in five gallon cans is a tankful for many cars and will make a lot of difference if you cannot get gas and urgently need to go somewhere. Bicycles can be had inexpensively and make good alternate transportation besides being good exercise anytime. Plastic sheeting and garbage bags are cheap and useful for many things. Aluminum foil and duct tape are cheap and can solve many problems. Please realize that these things are cheap now. They will not be when the panic starts.
I emphasize low and zero cost options here for two reasons. First, I and other pessimists might be wrong. I don't think so, or I would not be writing this, but I could be. Second, it relieves you of much of the difficulty in making your decisions because you win either way. Don't stop with my list. Think about your own situation and what you might need.
Longer term preparations begin to get more expensive and difficult, especially for those who live in cities. Generators, propane wall heaters that do not use electricity, hand operated well pumps, on site fuel tanks and other more expensive things begin to add up to significant expenses, but can also be useful in the case of ice storms, floods, hurricanes, and other difficulties besides y2k. Having heat and electricity in a house or business can make a world of difference.
Wherever you live however, and however long in duration the incidents for which you prepare, there are several critical areas everybody must address. In approximate chronological priority they are:
Another issue to consider is the relative expected scarcity of different items. The city dweller has a larger food problem than a country dweller, most of whose neighbors raise food for a living. On the other hand, a country dweller has a larger transportation problem and more difficulty getting fuel and parts.
At this point as you go deeper into some of the details below, you should begin to ask
yourself the following questions:
What had God called you to do in this life?
What supplies do you need to keep doing this? (For example, food will be on everybody's
list, a plumber needs tools, a trucker needs cash to buy diesel, a factory needs raw
materials and machine parts, etc.)
What can you do at little cost to ensure that you can keep at the Lord's work when
supplies become uncertain?
What will you do if interruptions of supplies and services last for one to three months?
What will you do if interruptions of supplies and services last for a year, or more?
What will you do to help those who have not prepared ahead?
How will you prepare for a major social change?
It may be helpful to think in terms of insurance. Insurance is most useful when you can spend only a little against the possibility of a large disaster such as a house fire. If an event looks reasonably certain, you do well to cover your bets. An example is buying food staples a year in advance and saving money in the bargain. You win whether things are normal or difficult. Only God knows the future and only God can give you the wisdom to know how to prepare for an uncertain future.
One final point must be made before we go into more details. Unlike many potential disasters, the y2k bug is unique in two respects. First, we can see it coming and we know its timing fairly well. We have a good idea of when to prepare. There is no excuse to not make some preparations unless you are utterly convinced that I am totally off the wall.
Secondly, even though the cause is technical, most of the uncertainties are largely social. Much of the uncertainty arises from the complexity of social interactions between affected parties and unaffected parties. Because of the interconnectedness of our society, the more people who are rendered unproductive because of the y2k bug, the worse it will be for everybody. If many people are well prepared, everybody is helped. An example may illustrate this.
Suppose you have a grocery store in a suburban neighborhood. The owner and its employees are caught by surprise. The owner has a generator to keep his freezers cold, but he runs out of fuel in a day. He cannot get fuel, because there is no power at the fuel distributor and he cannot run his pumps. The store owner would like to stash food outside so it will keep and manually enter his orders with suppliers even though his computer has quit. But, he can't get enough employees in to help because many of them are scrambling around trying to figure out how to keep themselves and their families warm in January and can't come to work. In the meantime, people in the neighborhood cannot get groceries. The local soup kitchen has nothing to give out. The fuel dealer does not want to freeze and starve, so he moves out of town.
Now consider if people are prepared. The grocery owner's employees spend New Year's Day dealing with the power outage and by midday their families are living more or less normally with candles, generators, wood stoves, kerosene heaters and camp stoves. The grocery owner meanwhile has a two week supply of generator fuel. His computer link with the warehouse is down and only the Lord knows where the trucks are that are supposed to bring him new groceries. But his employees know their families are warm and taken care of, so they come to work and run the store. Using backup procedures, employees make lists of needed merchandise by hand and then head to the warehouse with U-Haul trucks. Things are tough, and overtime is expensive. Prices go up, but not terribly, and besides no other grocery store within 10 miles has stock, so business is brisk. He has an extra small generator which he trades to the fuel dealer for another month's generator fuel. As a result, the fuel dealer makes money and other generators keep running. Since the grocery has food, the soup kitchen can operate and the fuel dealer stays fed and in town.
These are very simplistic scenarios, but the point is that in our interconnected society, both preparedness and lack thereof will have far ranging effects. If enough people are prepared, then the problem will be much less for everybody. If you are well prepared in advance, you will help yourself, your family, your church, your employer and others. You will make the total magnitude of the problem less than it would have been otherwise.
In addition to our personal concerns, we must remember that our objectives are not
centered upon ourselves, but that we also have it as our goal to:
Continue doing whatever God has called us to do in spite of the coming difficulties.
Be in a position to help others in need who are unprepared or poorly prepared.
Help reduce the total impact of y2k on society as a whole by being "fit for duty" when the
emergency occurs.
Let us summarize what we have learned so far:
We begin here with the third and final section. If you have decided to do something about y2k at any level, you may find helpful suggestions below. It is important to realize that not everyone will be led by God to prepare in the same way. Also, these suggestions can only be of a most general nature. By all means, if a section is of no interest to you, skip it and go on.
Before moving on to more detail in the area of more serious disaster preparations made against the less likely, but more severe consequences of the y2k bug, such as major riots, social breakdown, civil unrest, war, etc., it might be helpful to review some resources and books which could be helpful.
The first is Gary North's web page at www:garynorth.com. Gary North takes a very pessimistic view of the y2k bug's social impact, but he has a huge amount of information on his web site in the form of documents and links to other web sites. This site is well worth visiting for the available information and is kept up to date. You might not agree with North's pessimism, but he does have the facts to show that pessimistic outcomes are not at all impossible.
There are also two helpful books. The first addresses the y2k bug directly. The Millennium Time Bomb by Ed Yourden and his daughter gives a good overview of the y2k bug from both a technical standpoint and in terms of its social impact. The book makes some recommendations on what you should do in periods ranging from a couple of days to ten years on each of several problem areas such as electric power, banking, employment, etc. The book's major weakness is that both he and his daughter live in New York City. They have do not discuss survival techniques and can only recommend temporary relocation if things get too tough in a certain area. One thing we can learn from this perspective is that you probably do not want to be in a major city when y2k hits the fan.
For both short and long term survival preparations, you cannot beat Nuclear War Survival Skills by Cresson H. Kearny. If nothing else, this book is a good one to have "just in case." While the book is geared to surviving nuclear war, the techniques he gives for expedient solutions to such things as sanitation, water, cooking, staying warm, etc. are a gold mine. The book will show you how you can survive on limited resources. Kearny's techniques are geared to surviving and living in the aftermath of total nuclear war. If you can survive under those conditions, you will have little problem staying alive during the milder effects of y2k.
The first two resources share a common weakness. It is good and useful to identify potential problems. But we should not stop there. Neither should we batten down our own hatches and leave the rest of the world to go down the tubes. This could possibly be a valid response only if the disaster is certain to be total - which as long is Christ is King, it is not. Problems are meant to be solved. So let us get to work.
As I passed around a preliminary version of this paper, I had some people comment that they wished I had more information for churches/farmers/etc. Unfortunately, it is not possible for me to tell everyone what to do in their own particular situation. I do not work for the government, so I am unqualified to tell everybody else how to run their lives in every detail. You know your own situation, so as you read the general guidelines below, use the wisdom and talents God gave you to make your own preparations.
There are three underlying philosophies to the preparations discussed below. One of these is backup methods and supplies. A common example of backup procedures is the spare tire and jack in your car. These extra supplies and methods usually cost money, but they are typically cheaper than the alternative when something goes wrong.
The second method, with primary emphasis here, is buffering. A buffer is something that reduces the impact of an event or which allows more time before something becomes a problem. Your refrigerator is an example of a buffer. In many places in the world, there are people without refrigerators; they go to the market each day and purchase food for the day. Having a refrigerator allows you to go to the market less often. We are about to be faced with a situation where many things may be temporarily unavailable. We wish to continuing living, working and ministering during that time. Therefore, we need to consider ways to ride out the disruptions without being shut down.
The third method is to improvise alternative methods of doing things when the ordinary methods become impossible. This is good old Yankee ingenuity.
At this point, one must realize that there may be advantages to relocating. If your calling and ministry are relatively independent of geography it is well worth considering. Let us consider some of the advantages of city, suburban and country living. In the city, there could conceivably be safety in numbers. Historically, governments have defended their cities even at the expense of leaving the countryside to the enemy. Neighbors are close in the cities and have an opportunity to work together. Unfortunately, this presumes a consensus of purpose, something terribly lacking in large cities. The potential for riots and open warfare seems greatest in cities. On the down side also is the fact that it is easier for the government to curtail freedoms. Who ever heard of a curfew in the country? It is also expensive and difficult to install generators and fuel supplies. Gardening space is limited and there is little elbow room.
In rural areas, security is largely a factor of the fact that roaming rioters are unlikely to find a particular farm or household, and are likely to be shot in short order. There is little possibility, however of defense against any but the smallest organized army, be they insurrectionists, foreign invaders or whatnot. The fact remains however, that short of outright war, the country will be safer than in the city. Set against this is the fact that power and telephone lines and roads are longer and more vulnerable. Yet, there is also adequate space to safely store motor and generator fuel. Food is easily grown and raised. Wood stoves are practical and game may be had to eat. Of course, in prolonged troubles, both wood and game will become scarce. The country dweller will already have his own well, sewage and trash disposal and heating fuel on site. He probably also has gasoline and/or diesel tanks on site. With a generator and a stash of food and fuel, the country household has good short term independence from the troubles of the rest of the world and is able to provide a place of refuge for others.
Suburbs have some of the advantages and disadvantages of both cities and the countryside. They will be the first target of looters once they finish off the inner cities, but some will also be able to band together for defense. At the same time, they are vulnerable to government action and control. They are also generally dependent on utilities. Wood and alternate fuels are not in good supply, and in any event, the smoke can make neighborhoods unpleasant. However, householders will also have enough space to store food, garden and run a generator. They may be able to install a well and private septic system. It is not likely that they will be able to safely store more than a few gallons of gasoline. A single 55 gallon barrel of gasoline well away from any dwelling may be practical however. Fallout shelters in the case of nuclear war are also practical, though quite expensive and will require building permits and the like.
Also, whether one lives in a city or the country, the area makes a huge difference. Some smaller cities are actually fairly safe. In addition, one can live in the country, "way out there" near a small city and enjoy a shorter commute than is standard in large cities to their nearby suburbs.
Water is one of your most essential needs. Unless you are outside in bitter cold, or are in the middle of a life threatening emergency, it is your most critical need. Historically, city water utilities have been reliable. Ultimately, however, it takes electricity to pump and purify water. If the power fails, the water will fail. Further, many water utilities depend upon computers. Those dependent upon city water should be alert for whole city power failures. If this occurs, stock up on water immediately. Most water works have standby engine driven pumps and/or generators, but these rarely have very much capacity. Those dependent upon their own wells should have some means of backup water supply in the form of a hand pump, clean stream or a generator.
Your hot water heater is your most immediate short term source of clean water. Be sure to turn off the heat to prevent damage to the water heater if it is less than completely full.
Water, in most areas, is not at all hard to obtain. The problem is getting the water clean enough to use. It is important to realize that even one drop of water containing harmful bacteria entering the mouth, lips, nose or eyes can result in a case of the traveler's trots or worse. For this reason, when bathing in impure water, take care to keep the water out of your eyes and mouth, and clean your face using purified water. Purified water must also be used for cooking, washing food, washing cook's hands before food preparation, tooth brushing, etc.
There are three common ways to purify water: filtering, boiling and chemical treatment. Filtering involves the use of expensive and special very fine filters that are so fine that they actually filter out bacteria. They have no effect on viruses. Water may be also made safe to drink by vigorous boiling for 20 minutes. Even boiling for one or two minutes kills most common bacteria. This is usually the safest and easiest method for most people if the fuel is available. Finally, water purification tablets are available at sporting goods and traveler's outlets. Also, you can purify water yourself by adding 4 drops of 5.25% sodium hypochlorite to each quart, or two teaspoonfuls to 10 gallons and mixing thoroughly. Let the water sit for 30 minutes to give the tablets or sodium hypochlorite to kill off the germs. The best source of 5.25% sodium hypochlorite is common household bleach. Check the label and be sure that sodium hypochlorite is the only active ingredient besides water. If the percentage is other than 5.25%, then adjust the dosage accordingly.
Because of the criticality of safe water, and the cheapness of bleach, it makes a lot of sense to purchase and store some against an emergency. If an emergency never happens, you can use it in your laundry.
Muddy water can be made more pleasant and clear by letting it sit, or by purifying it with homemade sand and cloth filters. This does not make it safe to drink, however. In the short term, you do not likely have to be too concerned with pollution, such as agricultural runoff, in water from creeks, streams and rivers, especially if there are at least some fish in the water. On the other hand, dysentery can be fatal, so be sure to kill microorganisms by boiling or treatment as described above.
If you have livestock, the necessity for continuous water may force you to run a generator continuously during a power failure. If you are using a PTO driven generator, you will be burning a great deal of fuel. One solution is to use a smaller (preferably diesel) generator to run your well. You can also install a water tower to reduce your generator run time. This last is an excellent example of buffering as described above.
In many cases, sanitation is simple. Smaller city sewer systems may rely entirely on gravity flow. Even sewage treatment plants, in the event of prolonged power outages, can typically just discharge raw sewage. Septic tanks usually give few troubles. At the same time, there are some potentials for trouble.
First, in a few areas, the geography does not permit continuous gravity flow of sewage in parts of the sewer systems. For this reason the sanitation department will install lift stations with electric pumps to raise sewage to higher elevations. If these fail, and you are affected, you will know it. If your house is one of the lower ones along the line, you will really know it. A good insurance against this event is to buy in advance a plug that will fit your main sewer line where it comes into your house. You open a nearby cleanout, insert the plug and tighten the screw. Of course you still have a clean up job and a disposal problem, but at least your house is no longer the ad interim sewage treatment plant. A better solution is to prepare in advance. Install a check valve (which only permits flow in one direction) or a hand operated valve in your main sewer line where it leaves the house for even better protection. If you have plastic sewer lines, you may be able to install a valve yourself. These precautions may be useful even if you are not served by a lift station should a blockage occur.
In an emergency, if you have no valve or plug, nail a large rag to the end of a stick. Cover this with a plastic garbage bag and ram the whole mess tightly into your main sewer line through a cleanout. It will still leak out the cleanout, but not more than can be caught in a pail.
In severely cold weather, septic tanks may occasionally freeze if unused for a long period of time. Be aware of this possibility if you return to a long unused house in the winter. Also, if you have not done so for a long time, you may wish to consider having your septic tank pumped out sometime soon.
If your house sanitation fails, you will find yourself rather miserable in a hurry. As an alternative in case of sewer system failure, RV or marine chemical toilets are ideal if you have them. If not, several expedients are available. Here is one. Take a 5 gallon bucket and line it with a plastic garbage bag and put a toilet seat over that. Put a cover over the top of the bucket when it is not in use. Do not seal the bucket with a very tight fitting lid; gasses need to escape. Keep the bucket in the garage or someplace where the odor will not enter the house. If you want to get fancier, carefully cut a hole in the bucket near the top barely big enough to screw in the end of a garden hose. Cover the bucket with a fairly tight fitting lid. Be sure the plastic bag does not cover the hose end. Hang the faucet end of the hose near the roofline. Be sure no water is in the hose. This will vent most of the smell outside. When the bucket becomes full, carefully seal the garbage bag against flies, but leave the tie a bit loose. This will allow sewer gasses to escape without bursting the bag and will prevent flies from spreading disease. When convenient and the ground is unfrozen, you can bury the whole mess, bag and all. Also, an old submariner's trick is to put diesel oil in the bucket which floats on top to contain the smell. But watch to be sure the oil does not eat up the plastic bag. You also have the problem of the environmental hazards from the diesel - it will kill lawns when buried. Vegetable oil would be better, but that probably ought to be saved as a valuable food item. Men can use gallon antifreeze jugs as urinals, and they can be capped closed when not in use. For longer term use, build an outhouse. Dig the hole 5 to 8 feet deep and keep it as far away from any home or well as practical and consider the direction of prevailing winds. Bath and wash water can simply be discarded in the lawn.
It is of critical importance to keep human excrement contained. Human excrement is a major source of disease. It is not only important to keep humans and pets from contact with excrement, but also flies which can rapidly spread sickness if they have access to human wastes. Human urine is not a normally a major source of pathogens, but should be also contained.
When refuse collection fails, you have to just do it yourself. Bury garbage in the garden or compost it. Mulch leaves; it is not as pretty as raking, but the leaves return their minerals to the soil. Burn trash and hold metals and glass for recycling or other disposal.
I have already given good reasons above why non-perishable food should be purchased in advance, at least a year's supply. In any scarce food situation, vitamin pills can go a long way towards making up nutritional deficiencies when the quantity and quality of food becomes uncertain. For this reason, a year's supply or more of generic brand vitamins is a good investment.
For those who are really serious about food storage, there are firms which specialize in supplying containers of nitrogen packed food staples that last for years. Most such firms have deals on "packs" which consist of enough to feed so many people for a year. Only a few Mormons (whose organization requires them to have a year's supply of food, but most do not do it) and a few "survival nuts" purchase these things, so the supplies are thin. Once even a little panic starts, supplies will vanish fast.
Unless you need to lose a lot of weight, the typical survival foods present a bit of a problem. The traditional American diet is a high energy diet containing many fats, oils and meats. There is a reason why Americans are taller than people from countries which have poor food supplies. Also, when food intake is reduced, the body's energy output also goes down. This is why dieting is so difficult and so few people succeed in loosing weight and keeping it off. For the same reason, natives of very cold climates never subsist on purely vegetable foods.
There is genuine value in just surviving, but there is additional value in being active, alert, healthy and fit for duty. For this reason, in spite of the cost, it is worthwhile to seriously examining the purchase of canned meats, of which tuna is a prime example. Also, some hams and other meats are canned so as to not need refrigeration. Check the label carefully. Camping foods offer another alternative, typically being high energy, but they are expensive. Also, olive oil and many other vegetable oils can be stored without refrigeration. It is common for larger households to store large amounts of meat in a freezer, but unless you are able to run a generator regularly, plan on giving that meat away in the event of a prolonged power failure.
Spices are relatively cheap and keep for a long time. They can add much to otherwise bland survival diets. The tradition of hot and spicy Mexican food developed from blandness of corn and bean diets.
I place these items together for a reason. Depending on your circumstances and lifestyle, you will probably take one of three paths towards dealing with power failures. This choice will influence your choice of alternate heat and light sources. First, you may decide to live without electricity. This is certainly possible and has considerable historical precedent. If you are a livestock farmer or otherwise run a business out of or near your home, this may not be possible. The second choice is to get a light duty generator and have power only part of the time. For example, you can run the generator once or twice a day and pump water, wash clothes, charge batteries, etc. at that time. I have survived a one month long power failure due to an ice storm this way. The rest of the time, you will have to depend on stored water, portable lanterns, etc. The third option is to run a heavy duty generator more or less continuously. This is expensive and requires a substantial fuel stash, especially since gas stations also need electricity to pump gas or diesel. A fourth option might be to watch things and begin reducing generator usage if the y2k problems persist for a long time. If you decide to depend primarily on a generator, this simplifies your heat and light problems somewhat, but you should be aware that this is the most mechanically complicated and risky option for those with little mechanical skill.
Your choice of which path to take depends on your finances and your lifestyle. If you are heavily dependent on electricity, you may have no choice but to bite the bullet and get a generator. Be certain that you never, even for a moment, connect a generator to house or farm wiring in such a way that the generator may backfeed into the utility power lines. This could be lethal. Make sure the main breaker is off. Better yet, prepare ahead and install a transfer switch. Consult an electrician if you have any doubts about proper procedures. Your choice of a generator depends on several factors. Inexpensive gasoline driven generators are not made to last a long time. Gasoline also deteriorates over time and is the most dangerous fuel to store. One option is to keep gas in five gallon plastic cans and rotate the gas by putting it in your car and refilling the cans. Propane is an excellent fuel and keeps forever, but propane fueled generators are more expensive. If you already have a large propane tank at your house or for drying grain, this may be a good option. Diesel is the most economical fuel, and diesel engines are generally heavy duty and suitable for long term use. In cold climates, be sure to store a mix of 30% #1, 70% #2 fuel so it will not gel in cold weather. Starting is also more difficult in cold weather, so electric start is almost mandatory. Be sure to have a means of gently warming the engine if needed in order to get it to start. Check with the manufacturer before using ether to start it.
Even if you have a generator, it is usually good to have a heat source that does not depend on electricity. For one thing, furnaces do not run all of the time, so most of the generator fuel is simply wasted if that is all you want to run. Secondly, furnaces can fail, whether due to fuel loss or mechanical problems. Natural gas supplies have historically been reliable, but all bets are off when the y2k bug bites. You may do well to have an alternate fuel. Options include wood stoves, ventless propane heaters, propane wall heaters and kerosene heaters. If you use any type of unvented heater, ignore what it says on the box about how safe it is - get a battery powered carbon monoxide detector. Fireplaces are pleasant and look nice, but they actually are very inefficient and consume much fuel to heat a small area. Be sure to have an adequate fuel supply for whatever you use.
If you already use propane or fuel oil for heating, consider getting a large enough tank (or extra tanks) to hold over a year's supply of fuel. These fuels are usually much cheaper in the summer and the savings well offsets tank costs. You also have more fuel available in a prolonged emergency.
Lighting is another need. Batteries should be used sparingly. They are expensive and do not really last long. Cheap votive candles (short thick ones) are a better option. Kerosene lanterns are even cheaper to run and run for a long time. Flashlights are available which have rechargeable batteries. Some have hand cranked magnetos or solar cells to charge the batteries. Where a great deal of light is needed propane or gasoline (Coleman) lanterns work well, but the fuel can be expensive. Do not use these types of lanterns indoors without good ventilation. In all cases, be very careful about fires. Remember what Mrs. O'Leary's cow did to Chicago. (Actually, it seems that some boys in the barn knocked over the lantern. Poor much maligned cow.)
Diesel fuel and kerosene have flash points of 150 degrees F. or higher. Therefore they can be safely stored in garages and basements if the tank is vented to the outside and all inside openings are sealed. Otherwise, you can use five gallon plastic cans rated for gasoline or kerosene service. (Plastic will not rust and leak.) Keep such cans well away from any ignition source and outside of the house.
You may find yourself in a situation where you need to let your house get cold enough to freeze. Keep some antifreeze handy to pour down drains and toilet bowls to prevent them from freezing. Be sure you know how to properly drain your pipes. In some cases, it may be necessary to blow through the pipes to remove water from horizontal runs. Such precautions may be necessary even if you continue to occupy your house if you are able to heat only one room.
Try to continue to occupy your house if at all possible. A family huddled around a small heater is still better off at home than camping out in some public building. You will be able to guard your house, you will have access to things in your house and you will be less subject to government control and regimentation.
There are two kinds of batteries, rechargeable and disposable. Of the disposable, the alkaline batteries now being sold by Duracell, Eveready and others have five year shelf life. Look at the label to be sure. This makes them worthwhile to stash. Avoid the older types of disposable batteries.
If you have a generator, rechargeable batteries make a lot of sense. Automobile batteries and especially marine, golf cart and forklift batteries can hold a lot of energy. If you have good electrical knowledge and skills, you can use such batteries for everything for lighting to running AC appliances via inverters. The batteries can be charged by generators, vehicles, solar cells, wind power and other means. The technical details are outside the scope of this paper as few have the skills to build and manage such systems and they are can become very expensive.
If you have an electric stove, or if you have a gas stove and the gas supply fails, you will still want to cook. Wood stoves can work well if they have a cooking surface, or you can place cookware inside the stove above coals. A hibachi charcoal grill can be used in a fireplace, if you ensure that you have a good draft. (Hold burning newspaper right up the chimney to start a draft.) Any outdoor grill can be used to boil water and do other forms of cooking in a pinch. If fuel becomes scarce, see Kearny's book for cooking methods that use little fuel. This discussion also applies to heating water for bathing and washing purposes as well.
Battery powered burglar and fire alarm systems can make a great deal of sense. First, burglars may well pick easier targets. Secondly, if nothing else, they alert you and your family to an intrusion immediately. Finally, remember that we are considering a wide range of possibilities here; if there is a large increase in crime and looting, but some relative level of order, such systems can summon the police (usually through a third party central monitoring station).
Even now, police cannot guarantee protection to homeowners and businesses. Except in the rare event they actually see a criminal breaking in or whatever, the best they can do is respond after bad things begin happening. Crooks know this, so they try to work fast. Unless caught by citizens and held for police, competent burglars are rarely caught in the act. Ultimately, it is the responsibility of citizens to watch out and protect themselves and their neighbors.
Police departments are heavily dependent upon computers for administrative purposes. If their computers fail, they may have less time to spend on the streets. In addition, during riots and civil unrest, they may have little time to respond to other complaints. It is not widely advertised, but a single hostage situation, standoff, chase or gun fight can deplete large areas, including whole small cities, of policemen.
For these reasons, you need to consider how you will defend yourself, your family, your neighbors and even your business or employer. Due to the current anti-gun climate, you need to purchase firearms and ammunition well in advance. Historically, tyrants have always tried to register and confiscate citizen's firearms. If you have not already done so, learn gun safety and practice shooting. Prepare yourself mentally and spiritually in advance so that you know under what circumstances you are willing to use deadly force.
Handguns are nearly useless at stopping criminals bent on harming you if they are smaller than .380 caliber. 9mm is the smallest you should use in a home if you can handle the gun. 9mm rounds are NATO standard and are the most available handgun ammo. For rifles, .223 (5.56mm) is a good caliber for varmint and defense rifles as it is also a standard and readily available NATO round. 7.62mm (SKS/AK-47 ammo) is another good caliber choice. The most common ammunition for shotguns is 12 gauge. For defense purposes, shotguns are good if you have room to swing the gun. For defense of an occupied house, apartment or other place where you need to be concerned with shot going through walls and injuring neighbors or others, consider fine bird shot. Otherwise, buckshot has the best stopping power. Attempt to purchase your guns from private individuals so that there are no records involved.
In a severe emergency, the sheriff may need to get up a posse or neighborhoods may need to organize guard forces. Therefore, able bodied men would do well to have a good rifle, preferably semi-automatic and to have plenty of ammunition. By no means am I advocating "street justice" here. If there is a need for a posse, neighborhood defense or other concerted armed force, the local sheriff should definitely be involved if this is at all possible. He will have much useful experience, expertise and advice and will be able to tell you how you can fit your group in to the total task of keeping order and peace. Study the Scriptures to learn the God given rules of self defense and the laws of war.
In an extreme situation, anarchy may prevail in certain or many areas. In this case, local officials may, at least temporarily, take back their traditional roles. For example, county governments could deal with all crime and court cases, many of which are now handled at the State or Federal level. In all events, the US and State Constitutions will remain in force whatever anyone may think to the contrary. Thus, even if there is much anarchy, that is no excuse to add to the problem by denying citizens due process, etc. Local officials take note. It is important to realize that our constitutions cannot be repealed except by formal amendment process. Presidential or other declarations of emergency or otherwise do not change this however much they may pretend. Get and read your US and State constitution and be familiar with the system of government in your area. Citizens and public officials must not take the law into their own hands; such practices only breed more violence and lawlessness and are immoral to boot.
A note to public officials: Remember that you are God's minister ordained to punish evildoers, praise those who do well and execute criminal and civil justice, favoring neither rich nor poor. It is on this point that your work will stand or fall. Concentrate on police and military effectiveness and keep the courts running smoothly. When things get bad, the con men and thieves (at least) come out in force, so be ready. Leave private citizens (except criminals) alone and give them the freedom and liberty to work out their own problems. Let the honest free market work. The worst "scalpers" or "hoarders", if they are making money, will quickly attract competition, thus driving down prices in a hurry. If people are willing to pay prices that are "too high", it is their own free choice and a clarion call to potential competitors to help fill that need. Where in doubt, deregulate.
Modern medicine, dentistry and other health related fields present a special problem. First the whole industry is heavily overburdened with paperwork and government agency and insurance company forms and regulations. The technical level is also such that health professionals are among the most highly dependent on computers and specialized supplies and equipment. There are really few things most of us can do when complex medical needs strike. The most important thing you can do here is to take care of your body and stay healthy if at all possible.
In troubled times, personal hygiene and such simple things as washing your hands before eating become much more important. Poor nutrition weakens the body and if many people are not eating well, epidemics can spread rapidly.
Watch out for disease vectors such as mosquitoes, fleas, ticks, flies, mice and rats. Stock up on mosquito repellent in advance. As an expedient when working outdoors, use wood smoke to drive away mosquitoes. Plug holes in the screens of your house. Control rats with poison or traps. Mice can also carry disease. Control fleas on pets and in your house, even if you have to keep a pet outside. These precautions become very important when sanitation is poor or people in an area are weakened by poor nutrition, stress or whatnot.
Rabies shots will wear off after time and you will need to be wary of stray cats and dogs. If trapping wild animals for food, take care to not be bitten or scratched.
Other suggestions are:
Assemble a complete first aid kit. The best are the fully equipped industrial or "survival"
kits.
Stock up on common medicines and supplies such as aspirin, skin lotion, baby oil, allergy
pills, toothpaste, etc.
If you have a known medical need, try to talk your doctor into writing you a prescription
for a year's supply of medicine. If the medicine needs to be refrigerated, such as insulin,
buy the most gigantic picnic cooler you can find. Keep enough ice to fill it in a deep
freeze. Prepare a large box at least three feet larger than the picnic cooler on all sides.
Buy Styrofoam building insulation from a lumber yard and make yourself a super
insulated picnic cooler. In the event of a long power failure, move the ice and your
insulin or other medicine into the cooler and put it in the Styrofoam lined box. The
Styrofoam pieces need to fight well and tightly to avoid "hot spots". You may wish to
wrap the whole thing in plastic sheeting to reduce air currents. Your medicine should
keep for many days.
Buy, if you do not have one, one or two good books on first aid and medical emergencies
so you now how to use your first aid kit.
If you have relatives in the hospital or in a nursing home, you may be forced to bring
them home and care for them as best as you are able. Be prepared for this possibility by
keeping abreast of what supplies they might need.
If it will not offer temptation to sin, buy some whiskey for use as an anesthetic.
Consider buying a tooth puller. It looks like a pair of pliers with a right angle sharp
"beak". Years ago, this was the only form of dentistry available.
Make sure you have common needed parts for your cars and trucks, such as oil filters and oil. Get any repairs you have been needing completed. If you are about to need anything such as new tires, get that done now.
There are reports that even automobile computers, such as those that control fuel injection may be affected. I personally find this to be improbable, but I do not have enough information to say so with absolute certainty. The reason for this is that cars simply do not care what time it is. On the other hand, some newer vehicles (mostly large commercial vehicles) have computers which track maintenance and perhaps even refuse to allow the engine to start if maintenance is too much overdue. In these instances, there may be trouble.
Fuel is the biggest problem. If you live on a farm, you can get an above ground gasoline tank. By all means steer clear of underground tanks. The EPA regulations are hideous. Even though farm delivered gas is more expensive, you can offset much of the cost by playing the market and buying a tankful when gas is cheap. Never store large quantities of gas near a dwelling. Another alternative is to use a 55 gallon drum in good condition, or to use several five gallon cans. If you use five gallon cans, the plastic ones are good because they will not rust and leak. Whatever you do, do not endanger your home or your neighbor's. Gasoline must be rotated as it does not keep for more than a few months. Additives however preserve gas for longer periods of time.
In the event of any extended fuel shortage, alternate transportation becomes valuable. Watch out for government induced fuel shortages. The freedom and independence that automobiles bring us is anathema to the bureaucrats who know what is best for us. Big motorcycles use nearly as much gas as small cars, but small scooters may be a realistic alternative. Unfortunately they are expensive, unreliable and dangerous. Horses, donkeys, and burros are useful and utilize readily available fuel. They also require a great deal of maintenance and cannot be simply stored until needed. Animal transportation may be a realistic alternative for a few people however. Probably the best all round alternate transportation is bicycles. They require little maintenance and are readily available. Stay away from exotic and fragile racers and get a good sturdy city or semi-mountain bike. You want a bike you can ride while carrying a load of groceries in saddle baskets or on your back. Never put any significant weight in a front basket as this makes the bike unstable. Loads mounted on the bike should be as low to the ground as possible and balanced on both sides. Nutty drivers make helmets mandatory. Invest in spare tubes, a patch kit and pump and possibly spare tires.
It seems that this is one of the least critical areas as most Americans have an abundance of clothes. At the same time, there are two areas that need special attention. Sandals are fairly easy to improvise, but are unsuitable for cold climates. Shoes are hard to improvise. If you will soon need a new pair of shoes or boots get them now. The other area needing attention is warm clothes such as coats and blankets. Few backup heat sources will keep a house as warm as the regular furnace. Furthermore, if food becomes uncertain, keeping warm will become more important because as food is diminished, the body's energy output goes down.
Communications technology is heavily dependent on computers. In the very short term, telephone service may or may not fail. Most telephone companies seem to be better prepared for y2k than many other organizations. Unfortunately, if banks are not operating, telephone companies will run out of money. Further, their facilities are subject to vandalism and sabotage in the event of civil unrest. Similar problems (at least) face shipping companies and the US Snail. Businesses will face a severer test in the short term if communications fail, but it is also sometimes critical to be able to summon help or tell your wife you will be working late. For this reason, if you do not have a CB, you probably should obtain one. Be aware that traffic is often heavy and range is limited. Also, not only is there no privacy, but strangers may, or may not, relay messages as promised. Cellular phones, computerized by their very nature, may or may not be affected by the y2k bug and depend upon the telephone networks. Other alternatives include amateur radio and messengers.
Surprisingly, if your local telephone company is working, you may find the Internet to be the most reliable communications system. It was originally designed to survive nuclear wars. For all the damage we did to Iraq's military in the 1991 war, we never did completely knock out their communications because they were using Internet methods. Also much of the Internet is on Unix systems which are not as vulnerable to y2k as DOS systems.
A similar concern is news and information from the world at large. Because you may have to make decisions based on events such as banking failures and riots, you should be sure that you have a good working battery powered radio, preferably with short wave capability. A battery powered TV may also be helpful. The Internet is the best source of uncensored news, but it is dependent on telephone service.
Getting good and reliable news is already a serious problem. Alternative news sources do some really good investigative reporting and expose the routine lying by governments and the mainstream media. Unfortunately such investigations take time. Governments will generally tell people what they think the people ought to know. Often their excuse is the concern that people will "panic." Frankly, it seems that people have a right to panic. If they do something unwise because of their panic, they but suffer the consequences of their actions. In the meantime, others are denied the opportunity to prepare in advance.
For this reason, if it is possible, rely on eyewitness reports from trusted friends and their friends. You do not want to rely on more than second hand information if you can help it. This should not be too difficult if you can communicate. Your main need will be for news of events like riots, bank closings, troop movements, areas without power, unsafe highways and the like which are usually easy to see firsthand.
A word of caution is in order here. We expect government officials to routinely lie about things. However, unofficial sources are equally unreliable, and perhaps even more dangerous if not examined with caution. Historically, in any time of civil unrest, troublemakers of all kinds, usually with revolutionary agenda, have spread rumors and misinformation in order to stir up more unrest, incite mob action and provoke otherwise good citizens into lawless acts and even atrocities. Even information from "good" sources may be bad if the source was duped. In the end, only the Word of God is reliable.
In troubled times, the last thing we want to do is shut down worship services because there is no heat or light in the building. Most Americans are not acclimated to standing or sitting for two hours in a cold building. For this reason, it would be helpful if prior arrangements could be made for one or more church members to bring generators and heaters if the need should arise.
If the government rations services, or if power outages are widespread, it may not be possible to print Bibles and other Christian literature. At the same time, a good many people might be getting a painful and personal lesson in the impermanence of the things of this world and start looking at Spiritual alternatives. God may well use y2k problems to get people's attention and bring to Himself new converts. For this reason, it may well be helpful to purchase a supply of Bibles and possibly other Christian literature in advance of 2000. As with other supplies, buy in bulk and get a discount.
There is significant probability that there will be tremendous human suffering as a result of y2k. For this reason, churches and Christian relief agencies have a special obligation to ensure the continuity of their own operations and to prepare for a possible large surge in ministry opportunities. Many of the suggestions for homeowners and businesses apply here as well. If you have a soup kitchen, you already get donations or purchase in bulk, so your opportunities for savings are more limited than for homeowners. Still, if the opportunity presents itself, stock up.
Another area needs to be examined here. The typical American social service agency is built around the "factory" model. True, there are savings to be had by economies of scale. Yet, each individual has his or her own needs. Many needs have root spiritual or moral causes which can only be investigated one on one. For this reason, if y2k bites hard enough to begin throwing people out of work, consider recruiting among the unemployed for volunteers. Also, many people will have small amounts of resources which they could donate. Many small donations can add up to meet major needs.
Farmers have many of the problems of other businessmen. In addition, livestock must be maintained - animals cannot just be kept on the shelf during a shutdown. Pet owners have many of the same problems. Most human staple foods are vegetable based and are unsuitable for cats and dogs which are carnivorous. For this reason, you may wish to stock up on dry pet food.
If you find that you are unable to continue to keep a pet, the worst thing you can do is just dump it in the country. It will suffer from starvation and, if an indoor pet, exposure if dumped in the winter. The only humane solution when you cannot keep a pet is to find a new home for it or euthanize it. If you find the foregoing discussion distasteful, then you have a powerful incentive to stock up on food for your pet - and people food for your family.
In the very short term, education is a relatively minor matter. A month without school is not the end of the world. The loss of even a year's schooling is not a total disaster, but neither is it desirable. On the other hand, it is possible that unemployment, school closings, power loss, etc. may create a situation where you or some of your family have extra time. For this reason, it may be well to stock up on good books and useful study materials so that you can improve the talents God has given you. If you do not end up with such extra time, then these materials will give you a good excuse to turn off the TV.
In any sustained social disruption, education becomes a very serious matter. When the Roman Empire collapsed, it was only a couple of hundred years before illiterate pastors were common. This had devastating effects on people who were at the same time being battered by other problems. The "Dark Ages" were well named. In any population, few students will learn on their own from textbooks; even fewer scholars can do original research. Therefore, most learning is passed down from generation to generation. If the chain of learning is broken, it is difficult for following generations to recover the lost knowledge. It is for this reason that each generation has a heavy burden of responsibility for the next generation. Of all knowledge, the knowledge of God is the most vital and the most difficult to guard against the sinful imaginations of vain men.
Dt 6:6-7 "And these words which I command you today shall be in your heart. You shall teach them diligently to your children, and shall talk of them when you sit in your house, when you walk by the way, when you lie down, and when you rise up."
If things get really tough, there will be great temptation to let education slide. This temptation must be vigorously resisted.
It may seem like a small matter, but if the electricity fails, you still need to be able to keep time and have a working alarm clock. In longer term disruptions, batteries may not be available, so mechanical watches and clocks may be a worthwhile investment. Timekeeping is a vital means by which many individuals can meet, work, worship and serve together. It is no accident that cultures which place low emphasis on punctuality tend to be poor; their productivity is impaired.
In general, whether the computer is the one in your VCR, or a huge mainframe, there are some common things you can do to try to resolve the problem. First, you need to decide just how important the date is to you. In an accounting program, dates are critical and of the essence of the program; you have no choice but to fix the defects by some means or another. On the other hand, for example in a VCR or word processor, dates are less critical. A microwave oven does not really need to know what date it is. There are many cases where dates are merely incidental to the operation of a particular machine or program. There are cases where dates are logged or reported, but again are not central to the operation of the machine. Here is a list of things to try in cases where dates are less critical.
You may be able to ignore the problem. The fact that the wrong date is displayed may be of no consequence whatever.
You may be able to lie to the computer and tell it that it is "really" some earlier date. By doing this, the machine, program or whatever will operate normally, but simply display and record wrong dates. The year 1972 may be an excellent choice if the computer will take it. The reason for this is that the calendar is exactly the same as for 2000. The days of the week will line up correctly with the dates. 1980 is another good choice (if the computer will accept it) because it is also a leap year and you can just add 20 to the dates of reports and displays. Unfortunately, the weekdays will not correspond to the dates. If this is important, then 1994 will work until February 29, then you have to switch to 1995. An easier case, if you do not care about the weekdays, but only about correct date would be to use any leap year such as 1980, 1992 or 1996. If you pull this "lie to the computer" trick, you may also have troubles with stored "previous" dates which are later than the date you give it. For this reason, you may need to do a total reset to restart the system or program. This may or may not work.
In a few cases, the error will be in the program code that computes the new year. In this case, once you manually change the date to January 1, 2000 (or whatever), the change will stick and no further action need be taken.
In still other cases, even with an accounting system, you may well be able to simply set the date to 1980 ("lying to the computer") and then use a rubber stamp on reports, invoices, etc. that says, "Add 20 years to this date." This is inelegant, but it keeps you running until you can fix the problems.
In all cases, you should back up your data very religiously. The safest procedure is to back up all of your data on Friday, December 31, 1999 or earlier, even if you have to terminate operations early to do this. If possible make two backups and compare them. These backups may save you untold grief if you encounter problems. If you will be around when it happens, monitor the date and time as the new year rolls over and watch carefully for problems. If you will not be around, turn the computer off or at least halt operations. When you return, check things out and monitor systems for problems. Be aware that some y2k bugs only show themselves after a computer is turned off and then back on again after 2000, so watch for this. If things go haywire when you resume operations, you will be able to suspend operations, make repairs and restore any corrupted data from backups.
In most cases, companies run end of month statements and reports. One way to lessen the impact of any y2k problems (for a short time) is to terminate operations on Thursday, December 30, 1999 and run reports, statements, etc. the next day. Remember to back everything up after you are done and do it before midnight. (I have found a y2k error in the scheduler for a popular backup utility!) It might be a good idea to print out hard copies of critical accounts. This way you have your end of month/quarter/year reports and summaries in hand before "doomsday". You also may want to print out customer's and vendor's account balances and other critical data. In many cases, it may well be advisable to cease operations during the holiday week in order for your financial people to complete all of 1999's accounting work before January.
Finally, be aware that y2k problems may show up at times other than January 1, 2000.
Examples of potential trouble spots include:
Various kinds of expiration dates and projections which are run in 1999, but use 2000
dates.
Fiscal years may cause problems in either fiscal year calculations, calendar year
calculations or both.
End of month for January 2000
February 29, 2000. 2000 is a leap year. 1900 was not, and neither will be 2100. Every 400
years, the century year is a leap year. Programming may not reflect this.
End of quarter for first quarter 2000
End of year reports for 2000
In a few cases programs will count days in the year and go haywire on December 31,
2000 because of an unnoticed leap year.
The GPS satellite navigation system actually has week number rollovers that do not
correspond to calendar years.
Some programs have stored years or dates in binary form referenced to nearly any
possible starting point. These programs may act up at any time. For example, a program
written in 1972 might store years 0 to 31, where the rollover is in 2004.
One of the ironic things about y2k is that there are even now y2k compliant computers, operating systems and programs available for very low cost which are quite suitable for smaller businesses, yet it is the larger and more established firms (with supposedly more resources and expertise) that will have the most trouble. Small business packages will do every important business accounting function and are suitable for businesses ranging from one man shows to businesses with dozens of employees. Managers and owners of larger companies would do well to take stock, say in mid 1999, and see where their firm stands in their y2k preparations. If by mid 1999, testing of supposedly y2k compliant software is not well along, it may be very advisable to consider using these smaller business packages as a backup. You need to install these systems and have the operators trained ahead of time and have all systems and procedures well tested before 2000 comes. Large firms will have the advantage of quantity discounts in purchases. Of course, many things will be lacking, but if the main computers are acting up, it will be very helpful for each department to be able to independently run payroll, purchase supplies, accept orders, etc. and record the transactions in machine readable form. The data can be extracted later and compiled for company wide totals. This is messy, but it beats a total shutdown. Of course the corporate culture of some firms is so top-down oriented and inflexible that this may be "impossible".
Through all of your beginning of the year operations in 2000, make careful daily backups of all data. It is safest to purchase in advance enough storage media to make independent backups each day for a month an a half (i.e. so that you never have to re-use storage media and destroy an earlier backup). This way, if you have a problem, you do not lose critical data, even if you need to reprocess a month's worth of data. Your most critical backups, of course will be the December 31, 1999 backups.
Evaluating equipment with embedded computers is a little more difficult. First, get out the instruction book and see if there are any dates to change or if any dates are displayed or reported. If not, you are very unlikely to have any problems and can quit right now. If you can change a date, change it and see what happens. If nothing bad happens and the equipment still works fine, you are in good shape. If the date cannot be changed to 2000 or the equipment malfunctions, you have to make the same kind of decision mentioned above on just how critical is that date. Generally speaking, most embedded controllers control machinery in real time and the real date is only used for reporting and sometimes maintenance scheduling. If this is the case you very likely will want to lie to the computer and give it a wrong date such as 1972, 1980, etc. and be done with it. If the microcontroller reports to a larger computer, you may have to diddle the larger computer's interface, for example, by adding 20 to the year. Or else, you may decide that the date is critical and need to get the problem fixed. Your only option generally is to contact the manufacturer of the equipment and obtain whatever is needed to fix the problem. This may not be possible. It may also entail anything from having the factory simply download new firmware into your equipment to replacing the entire controller.
Of course, the best option is to test everything early under controlled conditions. Be sure to back up your data before doing such testing. By doing your testing early, you will have time to purchase new hardware or software and fix problems before they become urgent and therefore expensive. Even if you do testing, be aware that the definition of a working program is one that has only unobserved bugs. For this reason, you should be alert when 2000 comes to deal with problems you missed.
Personal computer users will be affected by y2k on 3 levels - hardware, operating system, and user software. The comments here apply to PC type machines. Mac users will have slightly fewer problems, but the suggestions regarding testing should also be followed carefully. I have little experience with Macs, so I am unable to offer first hand and tested advice as I can with PCs.
To begin with, practically all PC computers have internal programs, stored in chips in the computer, called the BIOS. It is here that the troubles begin for many users. Many older PC type machines store the date in nonvolatile memory as two digits, plus an extra bit for the century. Unfortunately, this century bit is often mishandled. First, if a date after 12/31/99 is found on power up, sometimes it reverts back to 1980 or sometimes 1984. Secondly some computers will store dates of 2000 and higher, but are unable to roll over from 1999 properly. Fortunately this problem is fairly simple to fix.
First, if possible, back up all of your hard drive(s) and then turn your computer off before
midnight on New Year's eve of 1999. Turn it back on sometime after midnight and check
the date before running any programs. If it is correct, skip the rest of this paragraph. If it
is wrong, use the DOS DATE command or another program to change the date. Test that
the changed date is valid. If it is not, you will not be able to bring your computer into
compliance without obtaining a new BIOS from the manufacturer of your computer or
mother board. Now turn off the computer, wait one minute, then turn it back on. Check
the date before running any programs. There is a good chance that the time will be
correct, but the date will be wrong, typically 1980. If you have this problem, it will often
go away after one or two more power up/down cycles. If it does not, or it recurs,
(computers can do all kinds of strange things) an easy solution is to insert the following
line in your AUTOEXEC.BAT file as near the top as possible:
The next thing you wish to check is your operating system. I assume that you have already proven that the date works properly (at least after using the DATE command) in DOS mode. Typically, your operating system will be DOS, Windows 3.1, Windows 95/98/NT, etc. If you are using Windows, bring it up and use the calendar setting feature to verify that it displays a correct date. If not, exit to DOS and use the DATE command to check the date. If it is correct in DOS, but not in your graphical environment (e.g. Windows), you have no choice but to upgrade to a y2k compliant version.
The next thing you need to test is your software. First test critical software such as word processors, spreadsheets and financial programs. After that, start testing less important programs. For each program that fails, if it is a commercial package, you will have to decide whether to ignore the problem, work around it, or purchase an upgrade or a competitor's version. For software that you may have written, including spreadsheets and Word Macros, you will have to fix the trouble yourself. At all events, be on the alert for troubles. You are likely to be surprised several times later in the month even after careful testing. Most of the problems will be minor or cosmetic, but there is no guarantee of that.
It is far and away best if you can perform these tests well ahead of 2000. Be sure to back everything up carefully before you begin. When you are ready, set the date to December 31, 1999 and the time to just before midnight. Proceed as described above. After you reset the date and time back to this century, be aware that there is a chance you may be surprised by programs responding strangely to 21st century dates stored during your testing. These programs are potential trouble spots.
Spreadsheets deserve some special mention. More than one company has gone bankrupt because someone in the company entered incorrect formulas in the spreadsheet and accounting or other errors remained undetected. By all means examine your spreadsheet results carefully. Some spreadsheet programs have errors in some or all of their date and/or date sensitive functions.
Because of the fast development of computer technology, computers and software packages may be different from one another, even if they have the same model or version number. For this reason, it is safest to check each individual computer and operating system separately. It is also safest to check user software separately on each machine. One good reason for this is that as programs are installed, special files called .DLL and .DRV files are often installed also, often in directories unrelated the directory into which you are installing your main software files. Sometimes different programs install different versions of these files, but with the same name. If a y2k compliant .DLL or .DRV is replaced by a non-compliant version, a compliant program may be made noncompliant even though it appears that no change was made to the formerly compliant program.
Finally, there are a few peripherals, such as "stand alone" fax machines and laser printers that have embedded microcontrollers which may not be y2k compliant. In these cases, you can waste a lot of time at your computer when the problem is really in the peripheral.
There are a number of concerns which businesses have even if their computers are y2k compliant. Some of these areas have already been mentioned, such as government permits. The suggestions given in this section can only be of a very general nature as each business is unique.
Get any required permits, licenses, etc. well ahead of time, or be prepared to brave the black market. Try to reduce, to the extent possible, your interactions with government agencies. Be prepared to escrow taxes and fees if an agency cannot process them. Never make the mistake of "borrowing" from taxes due.
A business has some peculiar problems related to inventories. Many homeowners can store two year's worth of supplies. The same is true of some businesses. Most businesses however, have neither the cash flow, nor the space to inventory even a quarter's worth of raw materials. Nonetheless, it would be wise to consider which items are single source, hard to obtain, have long lead times or are especially critical and to obtain a month's, quarter's or even a year's supply at a quantity discount. Such factors as storage space and perishability are also important to consider. Retailers and many wholesalers and manufacturers may well have no choice but to concentrate on stashing operational supplies and hope for the best. The more you can prepare, the more time and resources you will have available to deal with those things which you are not able to anticipate or prepare against.
Carefully examine your customer service system. If your computers send out incorrect statements, etc., how will you deal with the flood of complaints? You will have the same problem if you are unable to deliver on schedule because of parts shortages or other troubles.
To the extent possible, clean up and simplify your accounts. Get out of debt if possible and have your payables current. If your bank shuts down or you are unable to meet expenses due to y2k problems, you will be in a much stronger position than if you were already 90 days past due. To improve your cash picture, aggressively pursue receivables, offering discounts where possible.
Few businesses can conduct all transactions with cash. For this reason, be prepared for y2k payables and receivables delays. Be patient with your slow paying customers who have computer problems, but charge stiff service charges to encourage timely payment. Remember that when push comes to shove, you or your customers can always hand write checks, postdate checks and hold checks until a bank opens.
Cross train your employees so that if somebody is out for a long period of time, somebody else can do their job. This will be critical if many employees are struggling with unheated homes, transportation difficulties and the like.
Think ahead and even prepare ahead for manual alternatives to jobs done by computers. For smaller businesses especially, manual journal entries and point of sale transactions may well be feasible. Such work is tedious, but it beats going out of business.
Consider where the vulnerabilities are in your industry or business with regards to y2k problems, both internal and external and prepare against these. For example, if you have the only gas station with a generator in the neighborhood, you are going to sell gas and donuts like crazy while your competitors sit and fume when the lights go out.
At this point, the issue of gold and silver holding and other investments deserves some discussion. First off, realize that initially, cash will be the most liquid and widely accepted medium of exchange. You can buy anything with cash, even a president. Be aware however, that businesses are required to report purchases of $1000 or more made with cash to the IRS. The IRS seems to think that everybody who uses cash is a drug dealer, tax cheat or some other kind of criminal. Cash will be useful because people are so used to using it. It is trusted and anonymous. Even as things deteriorate, cash should hold its value in at least the short term save for two types of events. The first of these is high inflation, even hyperinflation. The possibility of hyperinflation is very real and deserves further discussion. The other thing that would cause cash to lose value would be a collapse of the federal government in the event of war or other catastrophic event. This is due to the fact that our money (Federal Reserve Notes) has no intrinsic value and is accepted on faith alone. The faith is in the fact that you can receive it and turn around and expect someone else to accept it in trade for something of value. Unlike gold or silver, it has no value of its own. Once people lose faith in Federal Reserve Notes (dollar bills in various denominations), they will lose value.
Hyperinflation is simply rapid inflation. Inflation is NOT merely rising prices. Inflation may occur even when prices are falling. Inflation is rather a decrease in the value of money due to its debasement, typically an artificial increase in its supply. Inflation is an application of the law of supply and demand - if the supply of money goes up for a given demand, its price will go down. In this case, the price of money will be expressed in purchased goods - fewer goods for the same amount of money. There are many ways that the government can change the money supply. One, as seen above is to regulate banks. The second is to issue debt instruments, e.g. T-Bills. The most destructive is to simply print money and give it to government agencies to spend.
Now when the y2k bug hits, the resulting productivity losses will cause a net lowering of income generally. This causes lower tax revenues - if the IRS's computers work. If they do not work, collections may well fail. Because of inertia social welfare programs will continue and expand - if the government computers work. At the same time, if there are also banks to bail out, government expenses will be higher yet. The government will be greatly tempted to simply print money to meet current expenses. If they do, inflation will result. If they print enough money, the inflation will be hyperinflation. Note that if the Federal Reserve only prints enough money to cover withdrawals from banks and removes it from circulation when it is deposited, inflation will not result because the money is simply changing form from "computer money" to paper money and back. You will have to be the judge of how much discipline and honesty we may expect from Washington.
It would be nice if government computers would either work properly or shut down utterly. Unfortunately, the most likely outcome will be that the computers will not work properly and cause the government to waste money with abandon for want of any effective controls.
Since the government cannot print gold or silver, but can only coin it, gold and silver make good inflation hedges. Foreign currencies are subject to the same banking problems as US banks, and also to inflation. Even the Swiss Franc is no longer a real "hard" currency. For this reason, foreign currencies are now of primary interest only to currency speculators. Silver has been called the "poor man's gold" and with good reason. It is about two percent of the price of gold. Both silver and gold are available in many forms:
There are advantages and disadvantages to numismatic coins - those which have significant value (at least 15% above precious metal value) as collector's items. Among the advantages are greater value per weight and personal satisfaction. It is also frequently argued that when FDR confiscated all citizen owned monetary gold, numismatic coins and jewelry were exempted and that for that reason numismatic coins are not subject to confiscation. While these historical facts are correct, there is no reason why this must be the case in the future. Silver may also be subject to confiscation as well. The federal government makes the stipulation that silver is an "industrial metal" whereas gold has monetary use. This is silly as both gold and silver have been historically used as money. As for industrial use, look inside a high end computer or electronic instrument some time and you will see gold in abundance.
On the down side, the market for numismatic coins is thin and prices can vary significantly. Further, the grading of coins remains subjective and variable in spite of efforts to standardize grading procedures. The rarity of historic coins is both an advantage and a disadvantage. First, they are a luxury item as much as an investment and subject to significant drops in price. On the plus side, they don't make them any more.
For the first-time gold and silver investor, both gold and silver bullion coins are good investments. Silver may be readily had in the form of "junk silver", which are US silver coins which are so worn as to not be of numismatic value, but which are yet identifiable. Being in small quantities, junk coins should prove useful for small purchases in the event of an emergency. Junk silver coins were all made before 1966. Each coin, when minted, has a silver content of 0.77344 oz. for silver dollars (before 1965) and 0.723 oz. per dollar of face value for halves, quarters and dimes.
In terms of dealing with the probable upheavals in financial institutions and markets there are some steps you should take. Some of these steps will benefit you or cost you only a little whatever happens. The most difficult decisions involve what to do with investments that are above your immediate needs. One good rule of thumb is to get off of the computers as much as possible.
Recommendations with little or no risk and probable benefit however much of a problem
y2k really turns out to be:
Get out of debt except for monthly payables
Buy one or two year's supply of food staples and non-perishable food at wholesale prices
before the fall of 1998. Also buy one or two year's supply of domestic consumables such
as soap, detergent, toilet paper, motor oil, aspirin, etc.
In increments of a couple of hundred dollars at a time, start withdrawing cash from the
bank until you are down to enough in your checking account to pay at least a month's
bills. Accumulate cash or metals investments from that point.
Provide for a way to continue to occupy your home in spite of electricity failure. Your
biggest problem is likely to be heat, but water supply, sanitation, hot water cooking and
other needs should be considered.
Accumulate some precious metals. The market is near a low point for gold which is
selling for less than production costs. Be sure to take delivery. Be aware that you do not
have to give your social security number when purchasing precious metals. You need
only do so when selling. The IRS wants to rape you for capital gains.
The question of what to do with other investments generally is difficult. If you have debt, it is probably wisest to cash in enough investments to pay off your debt. You are probably paying more interest on the debt than you are likely to get in dividends. The probability is very high that the stock market will crash once people figure out how much y2k is really going to cost. Since brokerage houses depend on computers, if you insist on owning stock, obtain the stock certificates - this is a legal right you have.
If you are in mutual funds of any kind, you have special problems. First, your wealth consists of nothing more than entries in somebody's computer. The receipts and statements you have are easily duplicated or counterfeited and are non-negotiable. If your fund's computers fail, you will probably get your investment back someday, but you will be helpless against market fluctuations in the meantime. You would do well to move out of mutual funds into more tangible investments. Here are some remarks about different forms of wealth storage. Bear in mind that non-interest bearing investments can be converted later if y2k turns out to be only a mild hiccup. Loosing a couple of year's interest is a mild penalty compared to loosing all or a significant portion of your wealth. It is not likely wise to wait much past January of 1999 before switching. When the panics and market crashes begin (if they do) only God knows. May God therefore give you wisdom in your stewardship decisions.
Before proceeding however, there is one issue worth addressing. It is always useful to keep your receipts and statements. When the computers start failing, most of the time the needed information can be obtained by restoring from backups. Unfortunately, this is a process which requires diligence and is subject to error. For this reason, begin now carefully keeping and filing all credit card, bank, investment and other receipts and statements. They may be of great value in settling disputes.
Cash - Cash is the most liquid investment, but subject to IRS and government suspicion if transactions are over $1000. It returns no interest and is subject to inflation, even worthlessness in the event of governmental collapse. It probably will be scarce in the initial confusion, but watch for excessive Fed injections of cash into the system. Deflation is even possible if cash becomes scarce enough thus raising its value. A difficult area to assess also is the value of the dollar relative to other currencies. The current Asian financial crisis may lead to a devaluation of the dollar when Asian investors cash in their investments, particularly in US treasury debt.
Silver and gold - Their value is largely independent of government actions. Historically, gold has changed little in value since even the Roman Empire. Silver is occasionally subject to severe price swings, usually upwards, so don't buy in a steeply rising market - it won't last. Since silver and gold are valuable in and of themselves, and not subject to government debasement, governments hate them, especially gold. For this reason, gold or even silver ownership may be subject to official restrictions. This is unlikely to stop black markets however.
Bank accounts, foreign and domestic - Your money exists only in the form of information stored in computers. Interest rates are pitiful. Use banks for bill paying only, not investment purposes.
Stocks - The market is already severely overvalued. When y2k hits, a crash or at least a severe correction is almost certain if it hasn't happened before then. For that reason, invest only in companies you think will do well in a recession. Utilities may well bear examination, but the current trend of utility deregulation is changing the traditional role of utilities stocks as an investment. Buy the stock via a discount broker if you can and get that certificate in your hands.
Bonds - Corporate bonds should be individually purchased using the same rules as for stocks. Buy through a broker instead of a mutual fund and hold the certificates. Government bonds have a reputation for safety, but some of this is illusory. Not all municipal bonds are insured and not all federal debt is insured either. Ultimately however, the safety of government paper is dependent on the government's ability to extract taxes from citizens. Some State and local governments are more competent than others, so check Moody's or other ratings. Short term bonds are probably safest, but it may not be possible to redeem bonds if banking system computers are down. The one advantage here is that banks merely process bonds for redemption, so you are independent of any single bank's health unless the bank fails while it is processing your redemption. Bonds are also subject to inflation and default; municipalities and States have defaulted in the past. While the idea of default on Federal bonds is shocking, it is not impossible. For example, the Feds may convert all bonds to 50 year notes at interest rates they specify. The interest on the Federal debt is the largest single item in the budget; they have powerful incentive to weasel out.
Commodities - Play the commodities markets only if you are a producer or user of some commodity and want to hedge against the market. Anybody else but an insider will lose.
Other - There are other investments, many quite complex and highly dependent on computers. If they make you more comfortable than Las Vegas, have fun.
In conclusion, all indications are that we are in for a time of great turmoil in financial markets. It is possible that a panic will start well before 2000, and it is even possible that people will be thick headed and that the panic will occur in the first quarter of 2000. It is even possible (though before God, I cannot conceive how) that nothing will happen at all. In the end, the only truly safe investment is the Treasure in Heaven that the Lord has promised to His faithful servants.
One of the major results of any failures in government welfare or other social programs will be opportunities for individuals, families and churches to take back their God given responsibilities. The Scriptures commands civil governments to execute justice in civil and criminal law, punish evildoers and praise the righteous. Social programs are the province of individuals, families and churches. It would be a great mistake however for any voluntary agency to simply attempt to duplicate shut down government programs. The largest reason for this is that government programs do not address the largest cause of poverty - sin, especially sin on the part of the poor.
Sin caused poverty comes in at least two forms - oppression and self inflicted. Surprisingly much of the oppression is the fault of the government, not "capitalist pigs" or other common targets. Examples include, but are hardly limited to:
Poor people are often, but by no means always, poor due to their own sin, for example:
It should be clear that just issuing checks or groceries to anyone whose income is below a certain level is not going to solve any of these spiritual and ethical problems in either of the two categories. Furthermore, while social or peer pressure can encourage some ethical behavior, the only permanent and deeply life changing solution is the grace of God given through Jesus Christ to those who repent and believe in Him. Considering that the official religion of the government is secular humanism, the Fedgov is about as qualified to minister to the poor as Adolph Hitler was qualified to head a synagogue.
Some writers are beginning their works on y2k with statements like, "Most of the world's desktop computers will also start spewing out bad data." I tested three desktop computers ranging from an old '286 clunker to a modern Pentium machine with 9.5Gb of hard drive space. I found y2k bugs in all of them. Using the DATE line (described above) in the AUTOEXEC.BAT files, I brought the two older machines pretty much under control. Windows 95 in the other computer worked fine. I was able to operate most of the software without problems. I did see a few "100" dates as the year, even in relatively new software. Only two programs refused to work at all. One is not at all critical and the other I could make work with a simple work around.
Now my point is that I certainly did not see any of my computers "spewing out bad data." Yes, there were problems. But had I just blindly waited until 2000, I would not have been crippled. I would have had problems, but not insurmountable ones. Now, I generally agree with this particular writer. But we have to be careful with general statements like, "Most of the world's desktop computers will also start spewing out bad data." The y2k problem is complex, people use computers for so many different things, and social interactions are even more complex. For this reason, be careful of generalized statements, especially those using sweeping hyperbole. Some computers will be just fine and others will do worse than merely spew out bad data.
At the same time, the quoted writer does have a good point. Because I backed up my data and tested my computers early, I will not be worrying about my computers or software, but will be making money off of people who did not prepare - if they have cash in their pockets.
Other writers are even more incautious in their statements. One might get the impression that as soon as 2000 rolls around that millions of computers are going to explode in fireballs and smoke and be permanently destroyed. Some writers leave the impression that bank and brokerage accounts will vanish into nothingness. Now this last problem is indeed possible if the bank or brokerage failed to properly back up their data. But if they have good backups, and most firms do, then when the troubled firms get things going again, even if months later, they will be able to recover your account information from the backup tapes. What you do in the meantime however is another question. Also, if things get really bad the bank brokerage may never re-open. My point here however, is that the y2k problem will not permanently destroy all affected computers and data.
At the same time, I hope that you are not taking my words on blind faith either. Frankly, this paper was difficult to write. First, I do not wish to stir up people into taking action that would be useless. On the other hand, I do not wish to be guilty of not warning people of dangers to come. I have found it difficult in many cases to get good and reliable information. My problem is compounded by the complexity of interactions in our civilization. In any scenario, the number of possibilities mushrooms rapidly at each step. For what it is worth, I have chosen to make preparations of my own.
I have covered a great deal of ground in this paper. There is simply not enough space for many details. At the same time, it is impossible that such a long paper as this one would be free of errors, even serious errors. Thus, I would appreciate hearing from those of you who have corrections, useful suggestions or documented inside information for me.
May Almighty God give you wisdom in your own decisions and preparations.
This Information Could Save Your Life - For Eternity
The Open Manhole
INTRODUCTION
Suppose you saw someone crossing the street, not particularly noticing where he was going. Now suppose that he is about to step into an open manhole. How would you respond? Some people, not the kind we would want to know, might remain silent hoping to enjoy the spectacle of someone falling in and breaking his leg at the bottom of the city sewer. Others might wish to help, but are too timid, afraid that they may be wrong, or that they will offend the careless pedestrian. After all, nobody likes to be told that they are making a mistake.
Yet, I hope that you would be the kind of person who would recognize the danger and think enough of a fellow citizen's welfare that you would shout out a warning and point out the danger. If he stubbornly refused to listen and fell in anyway, at least you could sleep that night. It is in this spirit of kindly warning that I have written this pamphlet. I hope that you will take just a minute or two to read on with an open mind.
THE NIGHTMARE
There is an all too common condition which has eluded the best efforts of medical science to find a cure. Billions of tax dollars have been spent by university and medical researchers in vain. Those suffering from the advanced stages of this condition are condemned to suffer the most excruciating pain day after day for many years. Past a certain point, there is no treatment, no cure, not even any way to alleviate the incredible torment. This condition kills more victims than AIDS, cancer, heart disease, stroke and auto accidents combined.
The truly sad thing is that this condition is treatable if detected early and the patient is willing to make some lifestyle changes. Even more sad is that the lifestyle changes will usually make a person's life happier - not always, but usually. More tragic yet is the fact that the method of preventing this condition is well documented and proven. The prevention methods have been published many times over the years. Why then do so many people allow themselves to be trapped by such horror?
One reason may be that many people are so consumed by their present lifestyle that they refuse to consider any lifestyle alternative with an open mind. What about you? Another reason may be personal pride, an unwillingness to admit that they have been wrong all along. But consider - what pride is there in the sickbed or grave? Yet another reason may be that those who publish the prevention techniques are generally outside of the medical and other "establishments" and thus not "respectable." This last problem is hardly new; those who first developed the germ theory of disease were mocked, ridiculed and even persecuted. Will you consider your situation with an open mind? Or are you content to live for the present, choosing to blindly ignore the great danger which you may face? Please read on with an open mind. You have only a couple of minutes to lose and much to gain.
What is this terrible condition? It is called GUILT. Not guilt feelings, mind you, but an actual legal guilt which deserves the punishment of eternal Hellfire. OK, go ahead and laugh. This has just turned out to be another tract by some Bible thumping fundamentalist, right? But, are you sure that you are right and that I am wrong? If you are right, you have only wasted a couple of minutes reading this. But if you are wrong, the consequences are unspeakably awful. Have you ever burned yourself? Think of that pain all over your entire body day after day, year after year, for all eternity. This is not the pain of having burned yourself and then quickly yanking your finger away. This is the pain of being trapped in a raging fire. There is NO ESCAPE. If you are wrong, the consequences of being wrong are so horrible that you owe it to yourself to carefully consider this tract with an open mind.
THE CURE EXPLAINED
The problem is basically simple. God made the entire universe, creating it from nothing. He also made you. This gives Him the right to specify how you will live and to punish you if you do not obey. God is perfectly Holy and no sin (violation of God's commands) can come into His presence or remain unpunished. This may sound harsh to modern ears, but the Holiness of God is no small matter. God is perfectly Holy and it is God's own Glory which is His standard for holiness in men. Anything less is sin.
Rom 3:23 For all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God.
Have you sinned? Measure yourself against God's standard in Ex 20:3-17. God commanded you:
You shall have no other gods before Me.
You shall not make for yourself a carved image, or any likeness of anything that is in
heaven above, or that is in the earth beneath, or that is in the water under the earth; you
shall not bow down to them nor serve them. For I, the LORD your God, am a jealous God,
visiting the iniquity of the fathers on the children to the third and fourth generations of
those who hate Me, but showing mercy to thousands, to those who love Me and keep My
commandments.
You shall not take the name of the LORD your God in vain, for the LORD will not hold
him guiltless who takes His name in vain.
Remember the Sabbath day, to keep it holy. Six days you shall labor and do all your work,
but the seventh day is the Sabbath of the LORD your God. In it you shall do no work: you,
nor your son, nor your daughter, nor your male servant, nor your female servant, nor
your cattle, nor your stranger who is within your gates. For in six days the LORD made
the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them, and rested the seventh day.
Therefore the LORD blessed the Sabbath day and hallowed it.
Honor your father and your mother, that your days may be long upon the land which the
LORD your God is giving you.
You shall not murder.
You shall not commit adultery.
You shall not steal.
You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor.
You shall not covet your neighbor's house; you shall not covet your neighbor's wife, nor
his male servant, nor his female servant, nor his ox, nor his donkey, nor anything that is
your neighbor's.
How do you measure up? Have you ever disobeyed God who also said:
Is 59: 2 But your iniquities have separated you from your God; And your sins have hidden His face from you, So that He will not hear.
God is Holy. God is also perfectly just. Now no judge can be just who lets criminals go unpunished. Many criminals think that they do not deserve to be punished. This is part of human nature - we think we are not as bad as we really are. The fact of the matter is, however, that we are truly guilty before God and richly deserve the fires of Hell.
Rom 6:23 For the wages of sin is death, but the gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord.
Rev 21:8 "But the cowardly, unbelieving, abominable, murderers, sexually immoral, sorcerers, idolaters, and all liars shall have their part in the lake which burns with fire and brimstone, which is the second death."
Now someone will say that, "God is Love" and thus He would not throw anyone into Hell. Another will say that for God to torment a person in Hell on account of, "just a little sin" would be cruel. But, God is also Holy and Just. If you think that you do not deserve Hellfire, then you either do not understand the Holiness and Perfection of God, do not realize the seriousness of your sin, or more probably, both. Indeed, it is His holiness and justice which shows the magnitude of His love for us. Would you give your life for that of a cockroach? Or would you send your only son to die so that a cockroach might live? Cockroaches, being part of God's natural creation are neither unholy, nor sinners. Sinners are infinitely more disgusting and revolting to God than cockroaches are to us.
Rom 5:8 But God demonstrates His own love toward us, in that while we were still sinners, Christ died for us.
What makes the difference between the "us" for whom Christ died and the "them" for whom Christ did not die? The answer is God's grace, wherein Christ takes upon Himself the punishment due for sins and turns away the Just and Holy Wrath of God by giving perfect satisfaction to God's Holy Justice. The Bible speaks clearly regarding those who have been saved from the fires of Hell into eternal life. God said,
Eph 2:8-10 For by grace you have been saved through faith, and that not of yourselves; it is the gift of God, not of works, lest anyone should boast. For we are His workmanship, created in Christ Jesus for good works, which God prepared beforehand that we should walk in them.
Notice that good works (going to church, helping the poor or whatever) do not save anyone, but are the result of God's free gift of salvation. This matter bears some discussion on two points. First, people realize instinctively that you cannot serve God and go on sinning willfully. "Getting religion" involves a change of lifestyle. In short, there is a cost involved in following Jesus Christ. It is tragic that all too many people love their sin or their present lifestyle so much that they willfully turn a blind eye to the dangers of Hell and the glories of being with God in Heaven. In order to be saved, you must repent of (turn away from) your sins. You cannot pretend. God who sees and hears all will not be fooled.
Mk 12: 30-31 'And you shall love the LORD your God with all your heart, with all your soul, with all your mind, and with all your strength.' This is the first commandment. And the second, like it, is this: 'You shall love your neighbor as yourself.' There is no other commandment greater than these."
The second point is that many people think that their good deeds will outweigh their bad deeds and so they will go to Heaven and escape Hell. Not only is this not true, but it would not work even if it were true because God's standard of holiness is His Own Glory - absolute perfection, which is beyond human reach. Be honest with yourself. Do you truly love the Lord with all your heart, soul, mind and strength? Do you really love others as yourself? An analogy might help. No doubt any basketball player can jump a lot higher than I can and shoot far better - but it would make no difference if the hoop were on the moon. Against such a high standard (the moon), the basketball player is no better than I am. Only Jesus Christ ever lived a perfect life. Jesus Christ is the only person in history to ever earn the right to go to Heaven by living a perfect life - a right He earned for those who repent and believe in Him.
Is 61:10 I will greatly rejoice in the LORD, My soul shall be joyful in my God; For He has clothed me with the garments of salvation, He has covered me with the robe of righteousness, As a bridegroom decks himself with ornaments, And as a bride adorns herself with her jewels.
Rom 4:5-7 But to him who does not work but believes on Him who justifies the ungodly, his faith is accounted for righteousness, just as David also describes the blessedness of the man to whom God imputes righteousness apart from works: "Blessed are those whose lawless deeds are forgiven, And whose sins are covered;
Only the Righteousness of Christ will get anyone into Heaven. Only the Righteousness of Christ will deliver anyone from the fires of Hell. Christ's righteous covers the sins of anyone who receives His righteousness through faith.
Jn 3:16 "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life.
Ps 34:22 The LORD redeems the soul of His servants, And none of those who trust in Him shall be condemned.
Is 12:2 Behold, God is my salvation, I will trust and not be afraid; For the LORD GOD is my strength and song, And He has become my salvation.
In the modern world, there is the prevalent error that faith (or belief) is a matter of intellectual conviction or emotional assurance. Nothing could be farther than the truth. Faith is not confidence in yourself, but in Christ's forgiveness and righteousness.
James 2:19 You believe that there is one God. You do well. Even the demons believe; and tremble!
Faith or belief in God is an act of the will, a choice which you must make. True faith expresses itself in acts of obedience to God. True intellectual conviction and emotional assurance come from a personal relationship with the Living God.
Jn 14:21 He who has My commandments and keeps them, it is he who loves Me. And he who loves Me will be loved by My Father, and I will love him and manifest Myself to him.
One final point. You have no doubt heard many "experts" say things such as: The Bible is fiction.The Bible is a matter of human interpretation.God is love and would never send anyone to Hell.All religions lead to God. Truth is relative.The important thing is to be sincere.Science "proves" man evolved from slime and Genesis is mere fable.These experts are only rationalizing away the truth. For God said,Rom 1: 20 For since the creation of the world His invisible attributes are clearly seen, being understood by the things that are made, even His eternal power and Godhead, so that they are without excuse, because, although they knew God, they did not glorify Him as God, nor were thankful, but became futile in their thoughts, and their foolish hearts were darkened. Professing to be wise, they became fools...
WILL YOU TAKE THE CURE AND INHERIT ETERNAL LIFE?
Now then friend, what will you do? I urge you to carefully consider where you will spend eternity. The issue is very simple: God made you. God told you how you must live and put this knowledge in your conscience. You have instead rebelled and sinned against God. You deserve to be punished for your rebellion against God and you deserve to go to Hell. Yet, in His awesome lovingkindness, God gave His Son, Jesus Christ, so that whoever repents and trusts in Jesus will be forgiven and will inherit eternal life.
You may say, it can't be that simple. It is that simple. It is simple enough for children.
Lk 18: 16 But Jesus called them to Him and said, "Let the little children come to Me, and do not forbid them; for of such is the kingdom of God. Assuredly, I say to you, whoever does not receive the kingdom of God as a little child will by no means enter it."
Jesus has not restricted His grace to philosophers and engineers, but to those who trust in His mercy with a simple childlike trust. He commands you to repent and trust Christ for your salvation from your sins. Will you obey God or not? This is a simple yes or no question.
You may still have doubts. You may still have questions. You can definitely trust your questions and doubts to God. My friend, this is more than the difference between life and death; it is the difference between eternal death and eternal life: Will you repent and believe in Jesus Christ?
If your answer is no, be assured that you can always change your mind - until you die. If your answer is yes, then consider the following prayer. Such prayers are not mechanical or magic. They can neither save you nor magically compel God to save you. But if the prayer reflects the desire of your heart, it is a way to acknowledge to Jesus your new faith in Him and your repentance from sin.
Oh, most Merciful and Gracious Heavenly Father, I acknowledge that you have created me. I know that I have, of my own fault sinned against you. I know that I deserve to be punished. I repent and turn away from my sins. I believe that you have sent your only Begotten Son, Jesus Christ, that whoever believes in Him will have eternal life. Have mercy on me and forgive my sins, not because I deserve your mercy and lovingkindness, but because You are merciful and gracious. I know that you have sent Jesus Christ to pay for my sins and appease your just anger against me. Thank you for your great mercy and for your wonderful gift of forgiveness and eternal life in Jesus Christ. Oh, Lord Jesus Christ, I thank you for coming into my life. Have mercy on me and teach me how to live as one of your disciples ought to live.
If this prayer reflects what is on your heart, then welcome to the Eternal Kingdom of Jesus Christ! There are two things you will need to do right away. The first is get a Bible. You would do well to start reading the Gospel of John. The second thing you need to do is find a good church whose members and pastor believe that the Bible is the Word of God and that the Bible is the only inerrant and infallible rule for faith and life. Make sure that they believe that Jesus Christ is both God and Man and the only Way to eternal life. If they don't believe these things, run for your life. Ask God to help you find the right church. A good church will right away help you get started in the basics of how to walk with God and arrange for you to be baptized. Praise the Lord!
Tract by: Tom Sullivan Reformed Presbyterian Church of Lafayette Pastor: David Long 1723 S. 9th Street Lafayette, IN 47905 Voice: 765-474-3307 Fax: 765-477-1949 E-mail: dlongrpc@aol.com
Copyright 1998, General permission to duplicate and distribute granted providing that the text of this tract is unaltered, Scripture passages are in larger type than other text and this copyright notice is included. All Scripture text from the New King James Bible. Note: The above copyright and general permission apply to the text of The Open Manhole only.
Return to Sheeple Chasers Y2K